New Delhi The embassies of India, China, and Iran in Kabul face the threat of attack by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), which has strengthened its capacity faster than anticipated and positioned itself as the primary rival to the Taliban setup in Afghanistan, according to assessments by several countries.
India has had a “technical team” headed by a middle-level diplomat at its embassy in Kabul since late June 2022, when the country re-established a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan after pulling out all officials in the wake of the Taliban takeover in 2021. The embassy is guarded by a contingent of several dozen paramilitary personnel, people familiar with the matter said.
Both a report by the UN Secretary-General on the activities of Islamic State, issued on February 1, and a report by the UN monitoring team, issued on February 13, have referred to the threat of terrorist attacks by IS-KP on the embassies of India, China, and Iran.
There was no immediate word from Indian officials on these threats. However, the people cited above said such threats were factored into all assessments before the decision was made to send the Indian technical team to Kabul. The people pointed out that IS-KP poses a threat to the missions of several countries in Kabul, and that the level of threat in the case of certain countries was higher than that for the Indian mission.
All security protocols are strictly followed to ensure the safety of Indian personnel in Kabul, the people said. As of now, there are also no plans to reduce or alter the Indian presence in Kabul. A joint team of Indian diplomats and security officials also made a low-key visit to Kabul recently to make a fresh assessment six months after the reopening of the embassy, the people added.
In the first week of February, Saudi Arabian diplomats in Kabul flew to Pakistan following warnings of heightened risks of attacks in the Afghan capital. At around the same time, the Indian and some other embassies witnessed heightened security following reports of a possible car bomb attack, one of the people cited above said.
The Taliban have sought to play down these developments, with spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid claiming the Saudi diplomats left Afghanistan temporarily for “training”. However, the report by the UN’s analytical support and sanctions monitoring team highlighted the threat posed by IS-KP in Afghanistan.
“By targeting diplomatic missions, ISIL-K seeks to undermine the relationship between the Taliban and neighbouring countries,” the report said, using another name for IS-KP.
IS-KP was responsible for the suicide bombing outside the Russian embassy in Kabul on September 5 last year, the first against a diplomatic mission in Afghanistan since the Taliban took over in August 2021. Six people, including two Russian officials, died in the attack. IS-KP also claimed attacks against the Pakistan embassy and a hotel accommodating Chinese nationals last December.
The UN team’s report said IS-KP “portrays itself as the primary rival to the Taliban de facto administration, with its strategic focus on Afghanistan and beyond in the historical Khorasan region”. The IS-KP’s “main goal is to portray the Taliban as incapable of providing security in the country”, the report added.
The report described Afghanistan as the “primary source of terrorist threat for Central and South Asia”. This threat originates from groups such as IS-KP, al-Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and Jamaat Ansarullah.
IS-KP is estimated to have between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters in Afghanistan, of whom about 200 are of Central Asian origin, though some UN member states believe the number could be as high as 6,000, the report said.
“Core” IS-KP cells are located in Kunar, Nangarhar and Nuristan provinces in eastern Afghanistan, “with a large cell active in Kabul and its environs”, the report said. Smaller groups are in the northern and northeastern provinces of Badakhshan, Faryab, Jowzjan, Kunduz, Takhar and Balkh.
