Confident about its prospects in MP and Chhattisgarhand optimistic about Rajasthan, the leadership was learnt to be crestfallen at the outcome.The funereal mood put the otherwise ‘rising-from-the-ashes’ victory in Telangana in the shade, with the question being “what now?”
Assembly Polls Results : From Congress washout in Hindi heartland to end of KCR’s national ambitions
The three defeats are spirit-sapping for Congress, not merely because they come ahead of the 2024 national contest, but because they have revived the ghosts that have haunted the party after the advent of Narendra Modi – its struggles in the Hindi heartland, concern about polarisation and absence of an agenda to counter BJP. While the 2018 December sweep of the three states was a booster ahead of the last Lok Sabha polls, it did not appear a durable repair of the party’s lost appeal as a Pulwama-powered BJP limited Congress to just 3 seats out of the 65 there. With Ayodhya, the new variable about to explode in the political mix, Congress’s assembly defeat has raised the worst fears about the future.
For Rahul Gandhi, a big personal challenge awaits. The elevation of a non-Gandhi president in Mallikarjun Kharge brought about a new decision-maker in Congress, but Rahul has remained the party face, the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ adding to his appeal among workers and sympathisers. On his part, he led the chorus of optimism about revival after the Karnataka win, but would find it difficult to retain the momentum in the wake of Sunday’s reality check or to find a new rallying call. It is a return of the existential dilemma for a Congress which has over the last decade had a larger footprint in the South than in North.
While the Modi appeal-polarisation combo has proved a difficult hump for Congress to overcome, its now-misplaced confidence tricked the party into reviving fears of a unilateral and domineering Congress among the allies, barely months after forming the INDIA union. With little time for improvisation, Congress would have to settle for a diminished bargain in states with primacy of allies, without coming across as contributing much in its strongholds that have a ‘BJP vs Congress’ bipolarity. It would be a big test to come across as a genuine player in the anti-BJP coalition, where many hostile partners would feed off its misery.
A bigger conundrum for Congress is the agenda to reinvent itself. The party toyed with “guarantee”- oriented populism and even swung to the Mandal side with combative advocacy of a caste census, but a question would be raised on their efficacy in the wake of BJP’s sweep, especially in a state like MP where anti-incumbency against BJP made them a combination to benefit from. A few in-house voices blaming the caste census as too radical and inimical for a traditionally inclusive party are likely to be heard, which will only create further confusion on a policy which was recently endorsed by CWC.