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- Manoj Joshi’s Column There Is A Crisis Situation In Many Countries Of The World Due To Turmoil
12 hours ago
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Manoj Joshi expert on foreign affairs
If 2024 was a year of war and anarchy then there is no hope of change in 2025 either. The wars in Lebanon, Gaza and Ukraine may end this year, but the unrest these wars have created will endure.
The new President will be sworn in on January 20 in America, the world’s most powerful country. Trump’s bullying, threats, tantrums may be a negotiating strategy for him, but it has made the world worried about its future.
A major problem the world will face with Trump in 2025 is his lack of trust in America’s traditional allies. The US-led alliance system has been protecting the world order since the Cold War.
It has provided a healthy monetary and trade-system, which has benefited the world at large. US-led organizations have provided it with global geopolitical power and have been a key factor in its prosperity and strength.
America’s strength lies not in its allies, strong economy and military power, but in institutions like the Federal Reserve, the US Congress. These institutions run on the basis of checks and balances, judicial and regulatory systems. But during Trump’s tenure, all of them are in danger of such changes, which can affect not only America but the entire world.
The problem is that while on one hand the American economy is flourishing and there is no visible decline in America’s power in the world, other countries are faltering on the global stage. Russia is mired in a war that has already hollowed out its economy and taken a huge toll on its youth. China’s economy suffers from structural weaknesses and faces resistance from the US, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and Europe.
America’s allies are also going through political turmoil. France has seen three prime ministers change in a year. There is every possibility that President Macron may be forced to resign before the end of his term in 2027. The anti-immigration right-wing National Rally party took the lead in the parliamentary elections held in France in June.
Germany is struggling with economic recession. This export-dependent country is bearing the brunt of the global recession. Political trends there are seeing the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, a right-wing political formation.
It is also anti-immigration and anti-EU. Justin Trudeau has departed in Canada. The newly elected Labor government in the UK led by Sir Keir Starmer is not able to gain momentum. He is facing no immediate challenge from the Conservative Party, whose tenure was not only ridiculous but also disastrous.
There were 5 Prime Ministers from the Conservative Party between 2010-2022. Currently, he is being challenged by the anti-immigration Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage. Recently, Trump’s close aide Elon Musk has also given indications of the times to come by taking Starmer to task.
US allies in Asia – South Korea and Japan – are also going through political turmoil. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached by the National Assembly for trying to declare martial law in the country.
Yun’s Conservative Party lost its majority in the elections held in April. In Japan, the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had announced to hold sudden elections after just 26 days of his tenure, so that the positive economic situation could be taken advantage of. But this move backfired and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority by losing 50 seats. Now Ishiba is running a minority government.
There is great demand for American leadership in the developed world. But there are concerns in the world today about his capabilities. The past decade has been a mixed bag for the US, including its withdrawal from Afghanistan and its poor handling of the Ukraine and Gaza wars. The situation is not going to improve with the arrival of Donald Trump.
On one hand, while the American economy is flourishing and there is no visible decline in America’s power in the world, on the other hand, other countries are faltering on the global stage. There is a demand for American leadership in the developed world. (These are the author’s own views)