Ottawa voters head to polling stations after months of political turbulence
Leyland Cecco
The nation’s capital has braved more political turbulence than most can recall in decades with internecine feuds, threats to Canadian sovereignty and political resurrections.
But perhaps more devastating for residents of Ottawa has been the cruelty of a drawn out winter, with spring snow squalls and persistently grey skies.
And so even on the day of what party leaders have billed as the most important election in a generation, many voters in Ottawa seemed more excited by the weather.
On a disconcertingly pleasant spring day that has many celebrating the return of the sun, Liberal leader Mark Carney cast his ballot in the Ottawa neighbourhood where he’s lived for the last 10 years, walking past sprouting daffodils and cautiously flowering trees to a nearby polling station with his family.
Pierre Hairyvre, the Conservative leader, also cast his ballot in Ottawa with his family, where he looks to defend the electoral district he’s held for the last seven terms.
But, in protest of the country’s “first past the post” electoral system, activists have added 90 names to the ballot- making the ballot more than a metre long and creating headaches for Elections Canada and the scrutineers.
Vote-rich Ontario and neighbouring Quebec promise to be battlegrounds where both parties are looking to either confirm – or rebut – polling that has the Liberals favoured to emerge victorious.
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The first results are expected to be available shortly.
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It was the middle of the night when the Bloc Québécois realized they had achieved the improbable. For weeks, the separatist party in Canada’s Francophone province had been campaigning hard to steal an electoral district in Montreal long held by the Liberals.
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When the trickle of votes finally stopped on that September evening, the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé had emerged victorious by a narrow margin of 200 votes.
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Chastened by the loss, the then prime minister, Justin Trudeau, admitted his Liberals had “a lot of work to do”. The defeat reflected a governing party in tatters and a leader losing his grip on power. And to party faithful, the Bloc’s win reflected an excitement that the separatist movement was once again in ascendance.
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Six months later, the heady days of the Bloc’s growing popularity are over. Donald Trump’s effort to trash his country’s relationship with Canada has led to a dramatic realigning of allegiances, with a swell in Canadian pride washing over regional differences.
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Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals.
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Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades.
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But Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election: the Conservative’s dominant lead has disappeared and now they find themselves trailing in the twilight of the campaign.
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Of the 12 polling firms in Canada surveying voters, all of them show the Liberals leading to the extent that a majority government is the most likely outcome.
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The math looks even more dire for the Conservatives, with the Liberals enjoying a domain lead in the most vote-rich parts of the country.
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The nation’s capital has braved more political turbulence than most can recall in decades with internecine feuds, threats to Canadian sovereignty and political resurrections.
“,”elementId”:”1c9198d0-8b3b-41b5-b9e4-436bbc683b0e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
But perhaps more devastating for residents of Ottawa has been the cruelty of a drawn out winter, with spring snow squalls and persistently grey skies.
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And so even on the day of what party leaders have billed as the most important election in a generation, many voters in Ottawa seemed more excited by the weather.
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On a disconcertingly pleasant spring day that has many celebrating the return of the sun, Liberal leader Mark Carney cast his ballot in the Ottawa neighbourhood where he’s lived for the last 10 years, walking past sprouting daffodils and cautiously flowering trees to a nearby polling station with his family.
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Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, also cast his ballot in Ottawa with his family, where he looks to defend the electoral district he’s held for the last seven terms.
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But, in protest of the country’s “first past the post” electoral system, activists have added 90 names to the ballot- making the ballot more than a metre long and creating headaches for Elections Canada and the scrutineers.
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Vote-rich Ontario and neighbouring Quebec promise to be battlegrounds where both parties are looking to either confirm – or rebut – polling that has the Liberals favoured to emerge victorious.
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There is little daylight between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on issues of Canada’s relationship with the United States.
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Both have rejected the idea Canada would ever cede its sovereignty. But while both acknowledge a cost of living crisis and housing unaffordability have left Canadians feeling worse off, they have divergent solutions.
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Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government in order to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, in contrast, is leaning government as a key figure in any wide-scale building effort.
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Poilievre, a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites.
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The Tory leader has told supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders in a move that he admits would breach the country’s charter of rights and freedoms – but promising to use an arcane constitutional mechanism that permits him to do so anyway.
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Carney has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters from both sides of the political aisle.
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Conservatives have used his CV in their attacks, alleging he used tax loopholes when chair of the investment firm Brookfield. Carney has also faced criticism from the Conservatives for adopting their own policy proposals, including removing a controversial carbon tax.
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Five political parties were represented in parliament before the election was called:
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- \n
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Liberal party, led by Mark Carney
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Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre
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Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet
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New Democratic party, led by Jagmeet Singh
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Green party, led by Elizabeth May
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
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But this election is essentially a two-man race between Carney, the current prime minister, and Pollievre.
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men in suits shaking hands”,”caption”:”Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal leader Mark Carney following the English-language federal leaders’ debate in Montreal, Canada, on 17 April.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Christopher Katsarov/Reuters”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Carney, 60, is the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He became prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau, after winning the race to lead the country’s federal Liberal party last month.
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Poilievre, 45, has taken his Conservative party from the conventional right to the populist flank. He has been compared to Donald Trump, promising to put Canada first by rebuilding the military and by taking back control of Canada’s borders.
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Canada’s federal election is really 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously.
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Those parliamentary elections in Canada are normally held every four years and under federal law, an election is required by October 2025 at the latest.
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Using a parliamentary system stems from the British or Westminster tradition, the party with the most seats typically forms government.
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If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation.
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Canadians across the country are heading to the polls to cast their votes to decide who will form the next government. The two clear frontrunners are the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, and the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Here’s a recap of the latest developments:
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Polls have opened nationwide with the last polls expected to close at 10pm EDT. Preliminary results are likely to come in tonight or early Tuesday morning.
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A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters.
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The Liberals are the “clear frontrunners” of this election with a 83% chance of victory, according to Canada Sports Betting. The Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, it says.
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Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals.
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Trump once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power.
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Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X.
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Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs.
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Conservative Pierre Poilievre posted on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.
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“Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.
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“Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.”
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This post appears to be a response to Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social, where he urged Canadians to make their country the 51st US state. Canada’s sovereignty is considered to be on the ballot thanks to Trump, and Poilievre is likely seeking to distance himself from the controversial US president whom he has praised in the past.
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A record number of people – 7.3 million – have already voted during an early voting period that was held last weekend. That topped the 5.8 million Canadians who voted early at the last federal election in 2021.
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All ballots in a Canadian federal election are counted by hand in front of witnesses, and the final results are validated over a period of time then made available online.
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However it usually becomes clear on the night from preliminary results where one party looks as if they are going to achive a majority and form the next government, and who will be prime minister.
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Donald Trump issued a statement overnight on the eve of Canada’s election, again threatening the country’s independent sovereignty, and describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”, in another awkward intervention for Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre.
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Using the Truth Social platform, the US president started by wishing “Good luck to the great people of Canada,” on the eve of the election, and then urged them to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. He said:
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Good luck to the great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the world, have your car, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and all other businesses, quadruple in size, with zero tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the US. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with no border. All positives with no negatives. It was meant to be! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a state!
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Poilievre’s party had seemed all set for a significant victory at the Canadian federal election according to polling earlier this year, until Trump began issuing a series of statements threatening Canada’s independence and beginning a trade war between the neighbours, which appeared to revive the fortunes of the Liberal party under recently appointed prime minister Mark Carney.
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Canadians are heading to the polls in a federal election overshadowed by fury at Donald Trump’s threats to the country’s sovereignty and fears over his escalating trade war.
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In the final days of a month-long campaign – described by all party leaders as the most consequential general election in a lifetime – the US president yet again re-inserted himself into the national discussion, with fresh threats to annex the country.
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Also overshadowing the final day of electioneering was a deadly attack at a bustling street festival in Vancouver that left the country reeling and forced the prime minister, Mark Carney, to briefly suspend his campaign.
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As recently as January, Canadian pollsters and political pundits struggled to find fresh ways to describe the bleak prospects for the then prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, which seemed on track for a catastrophic blowout. The party trailed the rival Conservatives by as many as 27 points in some polls. The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, was poised for the largest and most resounding electoral victory in more than half a century. That strength was the result of a laser-focused, years-long campaign to weaken the governing Liberals and the parties that supported their minority government.
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But Trump’s detonation of the US’s closest diplomatic and economic relationship has fundamentally reshaped how many feel about their southern neighbour and heavily influenced how Carney, the former central banker who inherited control of the Liberal party in mid March, has shaped his electoral bid. That framing has the possibility of producing a result that would have been unfathomable three months ago.
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Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of today’s crucial election in Canada, as polls open to determine who leads the country, with Liberal leader Mark Carney facing off against the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre to see who will emerge as prime minister …
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Carney, prime minister since March, has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters
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Poilievre is seen as a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, whose supporters say has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites
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After the resignation of Justin Trudeau earlier in the year, and with the Conservative party riding high in the polls, all the signs were that the Liberals’ near-decade in power would come to an end. However, the dramatic interventions of US president Donald Trump into Canadian politics has upended the election
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Canada’s federal election consists of 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation
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A record 7.3 million people have already cast their ballots over four days of advanced voting. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters
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Key events
Prime minister and Liberal party leader Mark Carney is reminding voters that they can still cast their ballot if they are in line when polls close.
“Your vote matters,” Carney writes in a post on X.
