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Dhupesh Dhameja, Samco Securities

Nifty Trend: Last week, the Nifty index recorded its biggest weekly fall of 4.77 percent. Due to this, all the momentum gained in the last four weeks evaporated. With Nifty closing below 200-DEMA and maintaining the lower-high pattern, there are concerns of continuation of the decline in the coming week. This concern has increased due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This big decline in the last week has created a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, Nifty decisively broke below its crucial 200-day exponential moving average (200-DEMA) and made a series of lower highs. This sharp decline marks a strong return of bearish momentum, as buyers expecting further upside were trapped.

The overall market structure appears to be disturbed. Decreased buying interest is further increasing the possibility of recession. With the recent fall, Nifty breached the psychological support level of 24,000. This is a sign of a big change in market sentiment. The level of 24,800 has now turned into a major stiff resistance. Nifty is currently hovering around its immediate support range of 23,500-23,200, which is getting support from the 50-week exponential moving average (50-WEMA). This is a level that has historically served as strong support.

On the daily chart, the index has consistently failed to close above its previous high. This reflects continued selling pressure at upper levels. Moreover, Nifty is trading below the important psychological resistance band of 23,800 to 24,000 which is supported by heavy call writing. This cautious sentiment suggests that traders are skeptical about the possibility of any immediate upside. Closing below 200-DEMA, as well as RSI (Relative Strength Index) falling below 40 are signs of bears strengthening their grip on the market.

Open Interest (OI) Trend

This week a strong rise was seen in Nifty Futures OI. It increased from 12.60 million shares to 14.62 million shares. It gained 2.02 million shares. This sharp increase in OI, coupled with the 4.77 per cent decline, indicates aggressive short positions by bears, indicating continuation of negative sentiment in the market.

FPI Long-Short Ratio

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have drastically cut their long positions, with the long-short ratio falling to 31.20 per cent from 38.69 per cent at the beginning of the week. This decline is indicative of a decline in expectations of institutional investors, which further strengthens the bearish outlook.

Daily Voice: There will be sharp fluctuations in the market, companies with good quality and strong balance sheet will sail through.

Important Weekly Series Levels

Weekly options data shows that the 24,000 strike has the highest call open interest, while the 23,000 strike has the highest put open interest. Heavy action in 23,600-24,000 call range and 23,500-23,000 put range indicates immediate resistance at 24,000 and important support at 23,000. Heavy call writing in 23,600-24,000 range strengthens the existing bearish sentiment. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has fallen to 0.71, indicating that bears have a strong hold on the market. The surge in open interest, coupled with the index’s sharp decline, is pointing to stranded buyers. Also, it seems to be opening the way for a possible decline towards the next support level of 23,200.

Forecast for the coming week

The sharp fall from the 24,000 level has firmly established this level as a major resistance zone. Immediate support for Nifty lies between 23,300 and 23,500, supported by strong put writing and previous swing lows. Maintaining this range will be essential for any meaningful recovery. Option series and price action indicate that on the upside, there is important resistance in the 23,800-24,000 zone. Sustainment above 24,000 may increase hopes of a short-covering rally and Nifty may move towards 24,500.

Reduction in long positions of FPIs and increase in open interest during a sharp fall in the index confirms the bearish sentiment. If the index slips below 23,500, selling could increase as buyers would trim their positions, leading to the index falling to the crucial support level of 23,000. As long as Nifty remains below 23,800-24,000 zone, the “sell on bounce” strategy is expected to continue, paving the way for continuation of the bearish trend.

Dhupesh Dhameja is a derivatives analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Disclaimer: The views expressed on Moneycontrol.com are the personal views of the experts. The website or management is not responsible for this. Money Control advises users to seek the advice of a certified expert before taking any investment decision.

As the winter season approaches, the cold increases, and with it the demand for room heaters also starts increasing rapidly. If you also want to buy a cheap and good room heater to save yourself from this harsh winter, then you must visit Bhatta Bazaar of Purnia. Room heaters for every budget will be available here, which will relieve you from cold. In this market you will get room heaters in the range of Rs 800 to Rs 15,000. Whether you want to buy a low budget heater or an expensive and more powerful heater, you will get all kinds of options here. located in bhatta market Anamika Electrical At our shop you will find an excellent collection of cheap and durable heaters.

These heaters also have buttons to control the speed and temperature, making them safe even for children. So, to avoid cold in winter, you can go to this special place of Bhatta Bazaar and buy the best room heater as per your budget.

Room heater up to Rs 800-15,000

With the onset of cold, people are using their quilts and room heaters extensively. But, there are many people who are looking for a cheap heater as per their budget. In this special market of Bhatta Bazaar, you will find cheap to expensive room heaters, which are available in the range of Rs 800 to Rs 15,000. This heater can save you from cold as per your budget.

The cheapest and most durable heater

Located in Bhatta Bazaar of Purnia Anamika Electrical At our shop you will find the best collection of cheap and durable room heaters. Shop owner, Rishav Aggarwal, while talking to Local 18, said that room heaters ranging from 400W to 2400W are available here. These heaters have speed and temperature control buttons, making them safe even for children. Apart from this, these heaters also have attractive design and sturdiness, which are useful in any season.

heater shop location

If you live in Purnia and are looking for a cheap room heater, then you have to go to Bhatha Bazaar. Here near ICICI Bank you will find Anamika Electrical shop, where you will get cheap and best room heaters. More than 25 room heaters are sold daily at this shop, and these are of all ranges, which fit every budget. So, if you want a cheap and good heater to keep you safe from winter, then Anamika at Bhatta Bazaar Do visit the electrical shop.

Parcel Scam: A new method of scam has come in the market, parcel orderers should be alert, they will be defrauded within minutes.

Allu Arjun: On one hand, South superstar Allu Arjun’s film Pushpa-2 is making waves at the box office, while on the other hand, the actor has made a special appeal to his fans. Superstar Allu Arjun has recently advised his fans to express their emotions responsibly. He said that strict action will be taken against any inappropriate actions or unacceptable behaviour. Allu Arjun gave this message to fans through his Instagram account.

What did Allu Arjun say in the post

Posting on his Instagram account, Allu Arjun said, “I appeal to all my fans to express their feelings responsibly as always and not to resort to any kind of abusive language or behavior online and offline.” He further said, “If anyone posts derogatory posts, misrepresenting themselves as my fans with fake IDs and fake profiles, strict action will be taken against them. I request fans to stay away from such posts.” Don’t join.”

What did Allu Arjun say in the press conference?

The Sandhya theater stampede issue was raised in the Telangana Assembly. Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy and MLA Akbaruddin Owaisi had made several allegations against Allu Arjun in the Telangana Assembly. CM accused actor Allu Arjun of reaching Sandhya theater on December 4 despite not getting police permission. After which Allu responded to these allegations in a press conference at his Jubilee Hills residence.

Expressing grief over this accident, the actor said, ‘It was an accident and my condolences to the family of the deceased woman. There is a lot of misinformation being spread about this incident that I behaved in a certain way. These are false allegations. This is insulting and character assassination. A lot of misinformation is being spread, a lot of false allegations are being made. Calling the woman’s death an accident, he said he was not blaming anyone as it was an unfortunate incident.

what was the matter

Before the release of ‘Pushpa 2’, the premiere show of Pushpa 2 was held on the night of 4th December at Sandhya Theatre, Hyderabad. Late night during the premium of the film, Allu Arjun reached the theater to meet his fans. As soon as the news of the actor’s arrival was received, a huge crowd had gathered at Sandhya Theater to get a glimpse of Allu Arjun. Due to which there was chaos there. To see Allu Arjun, people started pushing each other and leading to a stampede. In this stampede, a 35-year-old woman, Revathi, died and her eight-year-old child was injured and is undergoing treatment in the hospital.

Let us tell you that on December 13, Allu Arjun was arrested in the stampede case. However, after his arrest, Allu Arjun got bail within a few hours. The Telangana High Court granted bail to the actor the same day and he was released on the morning of 14 December.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (Nirmala Sitharaman) has made a big announcement regarding the insurance policy. He presented the Union Budget (Union Budget 2023) said that if the premium of a traditional insurance policy is more than Rs 5 lakh, then the amount received on maturity of that policy will not be tax-free. The purpose of this proposal is to limit the tax exemption on the amount received from high amount insurance policies. This announcement will impact the sales of insurance companies.

New rules will be applicable on policies issued from April 1

It has been said in the Finance Minister’s proposal that if the total premium of a life insurance policy, excluding ULIP, is more than Rs 5 lakh, then the benefit of tax exemption on the income from the policy will not be available. This rule will be applicable to insurance policies issued on or after April 1, 2023. The Finance Minister has said that this rule will not affect the policies issued till March 31, 2023.

Also read: Budget 2023: Is your income between 5-7 lakhs? Know how much you will be able to save in tax?

ULIP rules have changed in 2021 itself

Clear’s CEO Archit Gupta said, “You may have one or multiple insurance policies, the total premium of which may exceed Rs 5 lakh in a year. In such a situation, the sum assured will be taxable.” It is important to keep in mind that the tax exemption in case of ULIP was withdrawn in 2021 itself. Then it was said that if the premium of ULIP exceeds Rs 2.5 lakh annually, there will be no tax exemption on the income from it.

Insurance industry will be affected

Experts say that this decision of the government will have a negative impact on the insurance industry. Kapil Mehta, co-founder of SecureNow insurance broker, said, “With this move, people will not show interest in buying high-value traditional policies. But, this will increase people’s focus on term plans and pure risk covers, which is a good thing.”

Mehta said that there is a concern that due to this decision, the inclination of investors may increase towards purely investment based ULIPs. The insurance industry had high expectations from the Union Budget 2023. The industry had demanded a separate basket of tax deductions for life insurance policies. But, this demand has not been fulfilled.

Changes in the new tax regime will also affect the insurance industry.

The government has made several big announcements to make the new income tax regime attractive. Since no deduction is available on investments in tax saving instruments in this regime, it is believed that there may be a decline in the demand for insurance products in terms of tax saving. This is the reason why after the presentation of the Union Budget on February 1, there was a decline in the shares of insurance companies.

The government is preparing to make the Income Tax Act simpler than before. For this, a new version can be introduced in the next 6 months. Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Ravi Aggarwal gave this information in an exclusive conversation with Moneycontrol on Thursday, July 25. He said, “In the next six months, the Income Tax Act will be further simplified and this will be its new version.” After this, all the processes related to income tax including filing ITR will become easier than before.

Ravi Aggarwal said that out of the total Income Tax Returns (ITR) filed so far in the current financial year, more than 66 percent of the taxpayers have chosen the new tax regime. A total of four crore returns have been filed so far. He said the government’s focus is on ‘simplification’ of all processes including filing of ITR. “The government believes that the more you simplify, the easier it will be for people to follow the rules, which will lead to growth,” Aggarwal said.

CBDT Chairman said that there is enough attraction among the people regarding the new tax regime. About 66% of ITRs filed till date are under the new regime. It is expected that in future we will get more benefits under the new tax regime.

Aggarwal said he expects litigation to reduce as rules are simplified. He also said that after the search, the assessment will be completed within the next 12 months. He admitted that a large number of cases are stuck in appeals and litigation.

On the question of removal of indexation benefit from sale of property, Ravi Aggarwal said that indexation on LTCG in the real estate sector used to cover inflation only marginally. He said, “Analysis shows that LTCG of 12.5 per cent may be more beneficial for investors. Property prices have increased by 5 times in the last 10 years.”

Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBIC) Chairman, Sanjay Aggarwal was also present in this conversation with Ravi. Sanjay said that steps have been taken in the budget to promote manufacturing. Basic customs duty on exporting industries related to marine production has been reduced.

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Budget 2024 Announcement: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the first budget of the third term of the Modi government and in the very first budget gave a big blow to the middle class. Those middle class people who have their own house and property and decide to sell it, their profits are severely affected. According to the announcement by the Finance Minister, the benefits of indexation will not be available on real estate transactions in which the purchase price is adjusted for inflation. If they do not get these benefits, they may have to pay more tax on property sale. Due to this decision of the Finance Minister, Nifty Realty Index fell by more than 2 percent.

Understand with an example, how big is the shock.

Let us assume that you bought a property in 2004-05 for Rs 50 lakh. Now its value has increased to Rs 2 crore in 2024-25. According to the earlier rule, if you sell this property, you would get indexation benefit in tax calculation. How much benefit would I get? The cost inflation index in 2004-05 was 113 and in 2024-25 it is 363, that is, after adjusting for inflation, the purchase value of this property i.e. indexed cost of acquisition came to around Rs 1.60 crore. Now the difference between the purchase price and the sale price i.e. Rs 2 crore i.e. around Rs 40 lakh will be considered as capital gain and tax will be calculated on it. However, now when indexation benefit will not be available, tax liability will be incurred on the difference between purchase price i.e. Rs 50 lakh and sale price i.e. Rs 2 crore, i.e. profit of Rs 1.5 crore. In this way, we can understand how big a blow the middle class has received due to the decision of the Finance Minister. The government releases the Cost Inflation Index from time to time.

tax rate reduction solution

The Finance Minister has withdrawn the indexation benefit but has also imposed a reduction in the tax rate on long term capital gains on sale of property. According to the announcement of the Finance Minister, now tax on the sale of property will have to be paid at the rate of 12.5 percent instead of 20 percent but without indexation benefit. However, there was a possibility of zero tax liability through indexation benefit.

Will people of small towns feel more shocked?

Experts believe that this decision of the Finance Minister has dealt a big blow to the middle class but the people of small towns will feel it more. Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Research Head, JLL India, believes that the new system will be beneficial if the property is sold at such a high price that it is more than the price calculated through the Cost Inflation Index (CII). However, experts also believe that in most of the cases, property prices in small cities do not increase so fast.

Will real estate take a hit?

According to Abhilash Pillai, partner of Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas, this decision has also dealt a blow to the real estate sector. According to Abhilash, real estate has been the favorite investment option for the people of the nineties and the first decade of the 21st century. People also knew that due to indexation benefit they would not have to pay tax on the entire profit. However, if indexation benefit is not available now, the middle class will not find this option attractive as an investment, which means there is a possibility of recession in the real estate sector.

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