Avant-garde Chinese artist Huang Rui, whose work is often described as seminal, is treading a thin line. On February 23, a day before it was one year of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, he displayed his installation art “Absence of Black Moon” at an event, titled Together for Peace, jointly organised by the Ukrainian and Polish embassies in Beijing.
The event was well attended by diplomats from various countries including the United States (US) ambassador, Nicholas Burns.
Given China’s staunch support for Moscow and complete disregard for the ongoing humanitarian tragedy in the eastern European country, Huang was taking a personal risk — Beijing is not known to be kind to artists who oppose the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s narrative.
In this case, Beijing continues to blame the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato)’s “eastward expansion” for Russia’s invasion while refusing to call it so even after a year.
On February 24, China called for a cease-fire and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, again painting itself as a neutral party and a messenger of peace — despite the avowed “no limits” friendship with Moscow.
A day later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautiously welcomed Beijing’s involvement but said success would depend on actions, not words. It is, however, clear that the Ukrainian president had to murmur his welcome as he is barely in a position to antagonise his enemy’s most powerful ally even more.
“I believe that the fact that China started talking about Ukraine is not bad,” Zelenskyy told a news conference Friday. “But the question is what follows the words. The question is in the steps and where they will lead to.”
Beijing claims to have a neutral stance in the war that began one year ago, but has also said it has a “no limits friendship” with Russia and has refused to criticise Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, or even refer to it as an invasion. It has accused the West of provoking the conflict and “fanning the flames” by providing Ukraine with defensive arms.
China’s proposal reiterated several measures including demanding an end to Western sanctions against Russia, creating evacuation corridors for civilians and implementing measures to guarantee the export of grain.
“Conflict and war benefit no one,” the ministry said in a statement.
The 12-point proposal also urged measures to keep nuclear facilities safe, and sent out an emphatic no to nuclear war.
China’s often-repeated phrase “Cold War mentality” was mentioned, reiterating Beijing’s opposition to what it says is the US’s designs of hegemony.
“Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.” the proposal said. It offered no details on what form talks should take but said “China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard.”
Interestingly, Moscow’s response to Beijing’s proposal has been less than enthusiastic.
Beijing’s voice should be heard, but the nuances of the proposal are important, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on February 28.
“Any attempt to formulate theses for reaching a peaceful settlement of the problem is welcome, but, of course, the nuances are important,” Peskov told the Izvestia daily, according to a Reuters report.
A day earlier, Peskov had said: “We paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends’ plan. For now, we don’t see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace”.
China has so far denied US reports that it plans to supply arms to Russia but it has already helped the country by buying more gas and bolstering trade ties.
Bilateral trade between China and Russia in 2022 rose 34.3% year-on-year to a record high of 1.28 trillion yuan ($190 billion) in yuan-denominated terms, Chinese customs data showed in early January.
Chinese State-run media said the surge in trade was a result of “deepened relations.”
China and Russia “…maintaining a robust growth momentum which observers said is backed by deepened relations, a surge in energy trade and a further release of potentials in the two economies’ complementary bilateral trade ties,” the State-run tabloid, Global Times said in a report on bilateral trade.
China has repeatedly said it is willing to play a constructive role in bringing the conflict to an end but does it have the credibility — in the eyes of Western countries — or is willing to mediate?
Probably not because it is risky. For one, what if the mediation fails and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues? China’s “loss of face” would have caused irreparable damage to its reputation as a leading global power, which is trying to take on the US.
Beijing’s lack of neutrality in the conflict will also not be acceptable to many countries.
“China’s pro-Russian position would also raise doubts about Beijing’s status as a neutral mediator and might even derail its mediation efforts, especially if China proposes controversial compromises during negotiations. But abandoning these pro-Russian positions would be seen by domestic and international audiences as a humiliating retreat forced by Western pressure and Moscow would see it as a betrayal,” Ivan Lidarev, King’s College of London, recently wrote for the East Asia Forum website.
What Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) told HT last year still holds true. “Beijing is in an uncomfortable position since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. With its response, China is trying to balance interests that are increasingly in conflict: maintaining good relations with Russia, while preventing its relations with Europe and the US from breaking down. As the war rages on, its formerly relatively cost-free partnership with Moscow now carries growing geopolitical, economic and reputational risks for Beijing.”
China routinely talks about peace in Ukraine but how much it will risk to achieve it is the question.
Sutirtho Patranobis, HT’s experienced China hand, writes a weekly column from Beijing, exclusively for HT Premium readers. He was previously posted in Colombo, Sri Lanka, where he covered the final phase of the civil war and its aftermath, and was based in Delhi for several years before that
The views expressed are personal