Apart from India’s close allies Bhutan and Bangladesh, all the countries in the Indian subcontinent are reeling under political turmoil and facing severe economic crises. The latest to join the political crisis bandwagon is Nepal, which has had 11 different governments on the seat since the Hindu Himalayan Kingdom became a Republic in 2008. With Nepalese Communists yet again split, it is now for former Maoist leader P.K. Dahal aka Prachanda to seek a vote of confidence in the Parliament with the help of the Nepali Congress. The current crisis was sparked off after Dahal’s party decided to support the Nepali Congress candidate for the post of President of Nepal, leaving CPN (UML) headed by K.P. Sharma Oli in the lurch.
Since the abolition of the monarchy, the Himalayan Republic has hardly ever seen political stability with politicians more interested in power chair than providing governance to the beleaguered and poor population. The other game played in Kathmandu is playing India against China and getting economic or infrastructure aid in return. Even though Nepali politicians let go of no opportunity to hit India for their political agenda, the fact is that Nepal would have been in the same or worse situation than Sri Lanka or Pakistan if the Nepali rupee was not pegged to Indian Rupee at 1.6 and Kathmandu was not allowed unlimited rupee borrowing from India. Simply put, for Nepal to fail, the world’s fifth-largest economy will have to go down.
Even though India gave some USD four billion as bilateral aid to Sri Lanka since 2021 to tide over the deepening economic crisis in the island nation, the current political turmoil has ensured that a sole member of Parliament from a party is the President of the country, with others either totally discredited like the Rajapaksas or afraid to face the wrath of the common public. With much needed IMF loan still waiting for Chinese support for the proposed debt sustainability analysis (DSA), Sri Lanka is headed for bigger political and economic turmoil unless US and Japan join hands to support IMF’s loan on arrears support for Colombo to tide over the worst economic crisis with foreign exchange reserves at paltry USD 500 million. For its part, India has supported the IMF’s proposal based on the DSA.
The situation in Pakistan is equally worst as the Islamic Republic is rocked by food and fuel shortages, terror attacks and political turmoil with virtually all parties failing to deliver on governance. The Pakistani Rupee-US Dollar exchange rate is very high and the foreign exchange reserves are at rock bottom despite the refinancing of loans by big brother China. However, true to its nature and despite the doomsday scenario, the Pakistani deep state is playing games in India by promoting Sikh radicalization in Punjab and targeting innocent Kashmiri Pandits in the Valley. The Islamic Republic is having a running battle with the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan over the Durand Line as international border and is promoting terror groups opposed to the ruling Sunni Pashtun force. Another thorn in the flesh is that Pakistan is accusing the Taliban of supporting Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan terror group to target Army and security forces in the Islamic Republic.
There is political flux in the Maldives with the rivalry between President I.M. Solih and Mohammed Nasheed touching a new high and the country’s economy still recovering from the brutal impact of the global pandemic. Afghanistan under the Taliban are yet to be recognized by the global community including their once-upon-a-time mentor Pakistan and the Emirate has been reduced to a ventilator state where minorities, women and children are at the receiving end of the tussle between the ultra-conservative Kandahari faction and pragmatic Kabul faction of the Taliban.
Global pariah Myanmar is under military junta rule with no hope for Burma to return to democracy or semi-democratic polity in near future. Virtually a client state of China, Myanmar behind the Bamboo curtain is reeling under economic crisis with the poverty-ridden public having no say in the affairs of the state.
Surrounded by neighbours in serious political and economic turmoil, India must ensure that Bangladesh does not get dragged into a similar situation as the state is headed towards a general election in January 2024. Given the state of Islamic radicalization in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will face a stiff challenge from radical Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which is out of power since 2006 and gets tacit support from other Islamist groups in the country. With the crisis in the neighbourhood, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot afford to let India’s guard down.
