New Delhi: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s largest body of climate experts, will release a synthesis report next month. It is expected to be a key scientific report on the state of climate and will feed into the global stocktaking exercise at the next United Nations climate summit to be held in Dubai in December. The report is expected to provide information on historical responsibility for global warming and consumption patterns, Jim Skea, co-chair, Working Group III, IPCC, and professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London, said in an interview. Edited excerpts:
What can we to expect from the synthesis report? How is it likely to influence climate policy?
The synthesis report will, as the name suggests, pull together in one place key findings from the three working group reports and the special reports on 1.5 degrees warming, land and oceans produced during the 6th IPCC cycle. It doesn’t introduce any new information, but will draw out connections between the previous reports. Past experience shows this is likely to be influential. It will feed into the global stocktake being held this year under the Paris Agreement and will be considered at Dubai.
We see that the global north and south are polarised in negotiations on issues of equity and historical responsibility. Will the IPCC synthesis report address the issue of mitigation from the perspective of equity?
The IPCC synthesis report builds on findings from the preceding working group reports. Working groups II (impacts) and III (mitigation) have shown that those countries most affected by climate change have contributed, and still contribute, far less to global warming. The southern Asia region has accounted for 4% of CO2 emissions since 1850, and currently has greenhouse gas emission of 2.6 tonnes CO2 equivalent per person, compared to a global average of 6.9 tonnes and 19 tonnes in North America. The governments that make up IPCC will ultimately decide whether and how to present these facts when they meet in March.
How do you think lifestyle and consumption patterns influence emissions? Can it be used for mitigation?
For the first time. IPCC has devoted a chapter to lifestyle and consumption. It has shown that demand-side measures related to nutrition, shelter and mobility could reduce global emissions by 40-70% by 2050. So, consumption matters, as reflected in the government of India’s LIFE – Lifestyle for Environment – mission. But this won’t happen just through individual choices. People need to be enabled to make sustainable choices through the provision of infrastructure (public transit systems, cycle paths, footpaths) and technology (electric vehicles). The potential is big, but there is more work to be done.
What is the latest science telling us on the likelihood of breaching 1.5°C warming?
Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless there are deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades. Under a high emission scenario, 1.5°C warming is very likely to be exceeded during 2021-40; under a low emissions scenario, it is more likely than not to be reached, though temperatures could fall back below the 1.5°C threshold if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere.
What are your views on carbon capture and storage? Will it be helpful in curbing emissions?
Carbon capture and storage is used in all scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, with both fossil fuels and with bioenergy. Carbon capture and storage is a technological system rather than a single technology. All of the components – capture, transport and storage – have been demonstrated but only a few projects have put them all together. Large scale deployment will depend on getting the right incentives – e.g. carbon prices – and business models in place.
The next climate summit is at the United Arab Emirates, which has high dependence on fossil fuels. What are your expectations from the summit?
The previous summit in Egypt started to focus on implementation, adaptation to inevitable climate change, and issues of just transition, that is attention to issues of fairness and equity that will come with a low-carbon transition. I would expect that to be the direction of travel. The next summit will also lead to the conclusion of the first global stocktake on progress in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. These goals cover limiting warming though emission reduction, adaptation and finance for developing countries. There is some distance to go before any of the goals are met.