Most of India, except the peninsular region, will see day temperatures two to five degrees above normal, the India Meteorological Department said in its extended forecast for the coming two weeks, while independent forecasters predicted a further rise in temperatures from March, in early indications that the country needs to brace for another unusually warm spring.
Although northwest India will have some respite from the heat till Tuesday on account of strong surface winds, maximum temperatures would then start rising again, the weather bureau said.
“Temperatures are expected to be above normal during next week and the week after that. Maximum temperatures are already above normal over northwest India for this season,” said Naresh Kumar, senior scientist at the Met department. “For the next week, they will be between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius over Delhi.”
Day temperatures are expected to rise over northwest India from February 17, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster.
“The long range forecast available now shows that March and April are also expected to be very warm in view of less pre-monsoon activity over the region,” Palawat said. “We can expect maximum temperatures in the range of 30 degrees Celsius over Delhi from next week onwards. By March, however, that is expected to rise substantially.”
Last year, the country recorded its hottest March since the IMD began keeping records more than 120 years ago. The conditions that led to such heat were similar: an absence of western disturbance systems that bring rain to the northwestern plains.
The rise will be mainly due to a couple of western disturbances expected next week, he added. “When western disturbances approach, the wind direction is variable and temperatures go up. Winds do not bring cold air from the north,” Palawat explained. “From March, the frequency of western disturbances is expected to reduce and the maximum temperature is expected to spike further due to expected lower than normal pre-monsoon rainfall.”
Two western disturbances are expected to impact the Western Himalayas, one that will bring light rain to the upper reaches on February 15 night onwards, and another from February 17, Kumar said. “But, in both cases, rainfall is expected to be limited to Jammu and Kashmir, so the plains will not get rain and no weather or clouding is expected here,” he predicted. “Clear skies are associated with higher temperatures.”
On Saturday, Delhi recorded a maximum of 27.7 degrees, 5 above normal; Kanpur 29.2, 3 degrees above normal; Lucknow 30.8 degrees, 5 above normal; Agra 29.4, 3 degrees above normal; and Meerut 26.9 degrees, 5 above normal. On Sunday Delhi’s maximum fell to 23.8 degree C. The northern stations are still recording temperatures closer to normal due to approaching western disturbance.
Early data show a high probability of the El Nino weather pattern this year that could lead to a potentially warmer summer, meteorologists have warned, although they said it was premature to assess its impact on the annual south-west monsoon, HT reported on Saturday. There is an almost 50% probability of El Nino conditions prevailing during the summer months of June, July and August, and a 58% probability in July, August and September, according to the latest estimates of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released on February 9. Both these numbers are higher than the chances of a neutral condition.