February may have been hot (indeed, hotter than ever before), but we ain’t seen nothing yet, India’s weather office said on Tuesday, warning of a hotter than usual March, April and May across most parts of the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that there is a high probability of above normal maximum temperatures over most parts of northeast India, east and central India, and some parts of northwest India in the three months. There is also a very high probability of heatwaves occurring over many regions of central and adjoining northwest India in this period, it added, warning that even minimum temperatures will be higher than normal except in Peninsular India.
March will also be drier than usual across northwest India, IMD said, although rainfall will be normal at the national level.
Fears of an early summer have prompted the government to set up an interministerial committee to prevent a repeat of last year when a warm March hurt the winter wheat crop. With cereal inflation rising, and government food stocks dipping, this is a scenario the government can ill-afford.
There is a nearly 50% chance of El Nino conditions setting in the June, July, August, coinciding with the monsoon season, IMD’s forecast showed. But SC Bhan, head, hydromet and agromet advisory services at IMD, said a more accurate forecast can be made only in April.
Still, summer will be severe in most parts of the country, he admitted. And there will be an “enhanced probability of heat waves”, Bhan added.
IMD will start issuing colour coded heat wave warnings every five days from Wednesday.
HT reported on February 10 that there is an almost 50% probability of El Nino conditions prevailing during June, July and August, and a 58% probability in July, August September according to the latest probabilistic estimates of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) .
El Nino is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific; its opposite, La Nina is characterised by unusually cooler waters in the same area. Together, the phenomenon is called the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), and it has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
Experts said India should focus on developing heat action plans as soon as possible. “Responding to this forecast, state governments should prepare immediately. Some states have already done this. Heat can have deadly impacts on the vulnerable population,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
HT reported on February 17 that maximum temperatures began to rise in mid-February with many areas in the west and northwest India recording temperatures that are 5 to 10 degree C above normal. The warming seemed to be as bad, if not worse, than the conditions in 2022, when much of India skipped spring season entirely.
The spring heatwave last year led to at least 90 deaths across India and adjacent Pakistan, triggered a glacial lake burst in northern Pakistan, and led to forest fires in the hills of Uttarakhand. March 2022 eventually had the highest-ever average temperature recorded nationally. It also hit India’s wheat output.