The Election Commission will declare the results of assembly elections in three northeastern states on Thursday, bringing the curtain down on the first of a clutch of key state polls this year that will set the stage for the 2024 general elections.
All three states – Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland – have 60 seats in the assembly. Voting for the first was held on February 16, and the other two on February 27. Around 86% of the total 6.1 million registered voters exercised their franchise across the three states.
“It was stressed to follow guidelines laid down by the Election Commission of India for smooth counting process. Adequate measures have been taken to maintain law and order before and after announcement of the Assembly poll results,” said Tripura chief electoral officer Kiran Dinkarrao Gitte.
Apart from state police, Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) officers have also been deployed at the 13 counting centres in Meghalaya, 16 in Nagaland and 21 in Tripura, officials said. Additionally, officers are deployed at key traffic check points and patrolling has been increased in areas where officials suspect there may be violence.
Exit polls have predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are poised to retain power in Tripura and Nagaland, and a hung assembly is likely in Meghalaya.
Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is also the convener of the North-East Democratic Alliance exuded confidence. “There will be our government in all three states. Earlier too there was government formed by National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners in these states and it will happen this time as well,” he said.
Significantly, the comments come after Sarma met Meghalaya chief minister and National People’s Party president Conrad Sangma on Tuesday at a hotel in Guwahati, leading to speculation that the two parties were planning to continue their partnership in government if they got the numbers. The BJP, which has two seats in Meghalaya currently, was a part of the NPP-led government, but both parties decided to contest the elections on their own. Exit polls suggested that the NPP may emerge the single largest party in the state again.
“Let the results come out. The picture (on which party or alliance will form the next government) will become much clearer only after that,” Conrad said.
The competition was especially fierce in Tripura, where traditional rivals Left and Congress came together to forge an opposition alliance, and new entrant Tipra Motha, likely to make major inroads in the state’s 20 tribal-dominated seats. The BJP – which changed its chief minister last year in a bid to fight anti-incumbency – fought the campaign on the back of its development and welfare record, the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Manik Saha. The turnout in the state stood at89.95%, largely similar to the 89.38% seen in 2018.
The BJP contested in 55 seats and its ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura in six seats, including one where both parties are in direct contest. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) contested 47 seats, the Congress 13, and the Tipra Motha 42.
“We are hopeful of our victory and shall gift people a developed Tripura,” said chief minister Manik Saha.
Congress leader Sudip Roy Barman said, “We (Left-Congress combine) shall win at least 40 seats out of total 60. People are eagerly waiting for a new beginning.”
The state saw sporadic violence during the campaign, with at least 22 cases related to poll violence registered, 30 people arrested, one dead and 20 injured. “The DGP is taking stock of the preparations for a peaceful counting process in different districts of the state. Security has been provided at the 21 places of counting, including complete CCTV coverage and a three-tier security in the counting halls,” a senior Tripura police official said, requesting anonymity.
In Nagaland, where the assembly functioned without an opposition in the previous term, the ruling National Democratic Progressive Party-BJP alliance appears to have the edge.
“We are hoping to win by record margin, including from my seat,” said chief minister Neiphiu Rio, who has held the position four previous times acrosstwo parties.
In 2018, NDPP-BJP contested the polls with a 40:20 formula (40 seats for the NDPP and 20 for the BJP), an arrangement that has continued in 2023. The Congress fielded 23 candidates and Naga People’s Front (NPF) 22. The turnout in the statestood at 85.9%, up around 3 percentage points from 2018.
All eyes are on whether the state will elect its first woman member of legislative assembly after 60 years, a peculiar phenomenon in a state where women hold considerable power in a matrilineal society. Four of the 183 candidates are women, two from the NDPP and one each from the BJP and the Congress.
In Meghalaya, the Congress emerged the single largest party in 2018 with 21 seats. But the NPP, which won 19 seats, formed government with the support of the BJP (2 seats) and legislators from regional parties such as United Democratic Party, Hill State Peoples’ Democratic Party and one independent.
The political landscape in the state shifted dramatically after 12 Congress lawmakers, led by former chief minister Mukul Sangma, switched over to the Trinamool Congress in 2021. In these elections, the BJP and Congress fielded candidates in all 60 seats while the NPP and TMC fielded 57 and 56 candidates respectively.
“This time we are seeing a wave throughout Meghalaya in favour of NPP. So, it’s not just in Garo Hills, but we are seeing a positive wave for us in the Khasi Hills as well,” Meghalaya CM and NPP chief Sangma said.
Exit polls predict that the TMC may enter double digits, and smaller outfits such as the United Democratic Party may prove decisive. “The results will be unexpected and there will be a change of government in Meghalaya,” Mukul Sangma said.
The turnout in the state stood at 85.27%, up/down from 87% in 2018.
