Bengaluru
With the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) deciding to contest up to 100 assembly seats in the upcoming Assembly elections in Karnataka, experts say that the party could dent the Congress’ prospects more than the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP). The Congress leaders, however, say that the impact will be marginal.
It would be the first electoral battle for SDPI since the Union government banned its parent organisation – the Popular Front of India (PFI) – across the country. And the SDPI is confident of splitting the minority votes.
In January, the SDPI announced its plans to contest 100 constituencies of the total 224 assembly seats and almost all in coastal and southern Karnataka, which has good number of Muslim population. Party leaders said that the outfit has gained ground in 19 districts and released the first list of 10 candidates in first week of February.
SDPI state committee member Riyaz Kadambu said that although the party is contesting in select constituencies, it has received a positive response from the public. “The PFI ban will have no effect on SDPI and its activities. Our members are working at the grassroots and trying to strengthen the party. There’s new leadership coming up at the grassroots. We also have the support of Dalit and other organisations,” Kadambu said.
While the BJP and the Congress have accused each other of propping up the SDPI to help split Muslim votes, Kadambu slammed both the parties for overlooking the communal issues, and accused the Congress and the JD(S) of bringing the BJP to power in the state.
“The Congress and the JD(S) could not retain power, and their legislators made way for the BJP for personal gains. Now, the Congress is saying that if SDPI contests, it will help the BJP. Even when we didn’t contest, they could not retain power,” Kadambu said.
“Why can’t Congress and JD(S) support us and let us contest in some areas so that BJP does not come to power? We are not saying that we will contest from all the 224 constituencies. But they shouldn’t say that we must not contest and that BJP will benefit as a result,” Kadambu added.
It has been 13 years since SDPI was formed and the party has not been able to make big electoral gains with some exceptions in local body elections. While it didn’t win any assembly constituencies, their vote share saw an increase in recent past. The party’s popularity in the state has also grown beyond its coastal hub since its inception.
In the 2013 Karnataka assembly election, SDPI got a vote share of 3.2% in the few seats it contested and by the 2018 election, the vote share increased to 10.5% in the three assembly seats it contested. SDPI also won six ward seats in Karnataka’s urban local body elections in December 2021, its first win in any elections in Karnataka. At present, the SDPI has 300 public representatives in various local bodies and has been trying to make inroads into several assembly segments. To be sure, data shows that performance in the local body polls may not necessarily translate into assembly election success.
While political experts are assessing whether the PFI ban will help SDPI consolidate Muslim votes and thereby denting Congress’ prospects, Deputy Leader of Opposition in Assembly and Mangalore MLA U T Khader said their intent is to benefit the BJP. “It might dent Congress’ votes a bit. Their ultimate intention is to benefit the BJP. There’s only one-point programme and nothing else. The people also know that. There’s a clear understanding between the BJP and the SDPI, because one communal force will always help another communal force,” Khader alleged.
“They are only misusing the younger generation, and trying to divide the votes and showcase their identity. But we have nothing to worry about it. For example, we have got over 232,000 votes in one constituency. They may get 5,000-6,000 votes. We shouldn’t worry about them contesting. Ultimately, if booth-level workers do their job well, no party can defeat Congress,” Khader added.
Khader is the lone Congress MLA from Dakshina Kannada and Udupi districts. He has been winning the Mangaluru constituency since 2007 and will be eyeing his fifth term in the upcoming elections. All eyes are now on the SDPI whih is yet to announce its candidate for the Mangaluru constituency, which party sources said is likely to be finalised in a week. Kadambu also accused Khader of turning a blind eye to the hijab issue and killing of Muslims. “In this election, it looks like the people will notice these things, and it will be detrimental to the Congress.”
Meanwhile, Udupi BJP MLA Raghupathi Bhatt dismissed the consolidation of Muslim voter base by the SDPI, and said it will not affect the BJP’s prospects. “They are only targeting the Muslim community. In fact, even Muslims don’t vote for them. But they have a small support base. It may affect the Congress a little bit, not the BJP. They don’t have the capacity to defeat anyone,” Bhatt said.
“Most of the people in Udupi are educated, and educated Muslims mostly vote for the BJP. Even in my constituency, which is a Muslim-dominated area, we will get the majority. No one considers SDPI as a political party, even Muslims for that matter,” Bhatt added.
Political analyst Chambi Puranik pointed out that the SDPI is a movement for a separate Muslim Identity, as they have no trust or confidence in major parties to safeguard the interests of Muslims. “Secondly, it has given to ticket an accused in Praveen Nettaru murder case. It may have some negative impact, but such local activists may be given tickets to regroup the Muslim youth as well. Since major parties may shy away from support to such controversial candidates, minority votes of Congress may be cut, but JD(S) may not be affected as CM Ibrahim is the face of Muslims in the regional party,” Puranik said.
“It will affect Congress more than JD(S) in Karnataka. The BJP votes will be consolidated by this type of accused being given tickets by SDPI. But some young SC voters of BSP may extend their support to SDPI for various local reasons too,” Puranik added.
Earlier this month, SDPI announced its decision to field Shafi Bellare as the party’s candidate from the Puttur Assembly constituency in Dakshina Kannada. Bellare is one of the accused in the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha member Praveen Nettaru murder case. He was the SDPI’s state general secretary when he was arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in November last year.
Kadambu, however, said the SDPI will continue to support Bellare. “Just because there might be a negative impact, we will not let go of someone who is innocent. The police department clearly knows that Shafi is innocent. Due to the pressure from the BJP and the RSS, they have framed him. We have no doubt that he is innocent. He is a party worker and we will all support him.”
While it remains to be seen whether the SDPI will have any electoral impact and if the ban of its parent organisation will weaken it or will help it further consolidate its voter base, Kadambu expressed confidence that youngsters and several Muslim community leaders have extended their support. “Youngsters are in support of SDPI. Many Muslim community leaders are saying that the BJP is in power because of the Congress. They have extended their support to the SDPI. This is a positive vibe.”