Deficient rains in June, the first of the four-month monsoon season, could slow down planting of rice, the kharif or summer-sown staple, while the likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern impeding the rains remains a key risk to the economy, analysts said following a weather update by the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday.
Most parts of the country will see below-normal rainfall in June. The weather office also predicted sub-par rainfall in the entire season in northwest India, which includes food-bowl states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Rice, cotton and soybean are key crops grown in the north-western region.
Millions of cultivators await the monsoon’s onset to sow a range of crops, such as rice, maize, bajra (pearl millet), ragi (finger millet), soybean, groundnut, cotton and sugarcane. The summer season supplies half of the country’s annual food output.
IMD retained its forecast of a normal monsoon overall at 96% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) but said the rains will be delayed and scanty in June at 92% across the country. According to the IMD’s classification, rainfall between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average is considered normal. In June, it predicted the rains will be 92%.
Patchy rains in June will increase cultivation costs as farmers will have to pump ground water to irrigate rice nurseries. Paddy saplings are typically grown in submerged nurseries before being transplanted on to fields, which typically happens in June.
A weak start to the monsoon means rains in July and August must be plenty to prevent adverse impacts on crops, analysts said. In 2016, below-normal rains in June pushed back sowing of rice and cotton by nearly a month, impacting yields in many areas.
“Below-normal rains could delay transplanting and sowing of rice, but the sowing window is available till mid-July. Adequate rainfall in July is therefore crucial,” said Jeet Singh Sandhu, the former vice-chancellor of SKN Agriculture University, Jaipur.
The summer rains are critical for India, Asia’s third biggest economy, for two reasons: 47% of Indians depend on a farm income and nearly half of farmed areas depend on rains for irrigation. The monsoon also recharges reservoirs and aquifers critical for drinking and power generation.
The Maharashtra agriculture department has advised farmers to avoid crops such as groundnut, soybean, cotton, and urad (a pulses variety) if the monsoon is delayed beyond the first fortnight of July.
The likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern hampering the rains this year remains the larger risk, said Rahul Chauhan of IGrain Pvt Ltd.
Plentiful summer rains are important to raise farm incomes and spur economic growth. Robust harvests will help rein in food inflation, especially of cereals, which rocketed in recent months.
Extreme weather last year prompted India to impose restrictions on export of wheat, rice and sugar. India is the world’s second-biggest producer and largest exporter of rice.
