Chennai:
With O Panneerselvam (OPS) and TTV Dhinakaran getting closer, driven by their ouster from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and VK Sasikala set to meet OPS soon, this emerging faction is likely to further strain the ties between AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party in Tamil Nadu, experts say.
The BJP has been keen on uniting various factions of the AIADMK so that the votes do not split with TTV’s 5-year-old party, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). With the trio belonging to the same Thevar caste joining forces, voting patterns from previous elections show that the Thevar vote bank would go to them, weakening the AIADMK-led NDA alliance’s prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Since the courts and the Election Commission of India (ECI) have held EPS’s elevation as general secretary of the AIADMK valid, OPS has been cornered. “Everybody knows that the way OPS was sent out of the party was wrong. But this is the situation now, so we are trying to bring together like-minded cadre and leaders,” said a supporter of OPS who was also ousted. “The BJP knows OPS’s strength in the southern districts, so they will be willing to support us. We will know in the coming months.”
The BJP did not succeed in convincing EPS to bring back Sasikala into the party for the 2021 assembly elections, though OPS was open to the idea. “We have always wanted the AIADMK to be united so that our alliance is stronger to defeat the DMK,” said a BJP leader in Tamil Nadu. “But, we will not interfere in their internal matters.”
Earlier this year, reports emerged about Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai telling his party in a closed door meeting that his personal belief is to breakaway from the AIADMK. In the past few weeks his relationship with EPS has been deteriorating. This was addressed when an EPS-led delegation flew to Delhi last month to meet BJP party president J P Nadda and Union home minister Amit Shah, where Annamalai was also present.
On May 8, OPS met TTV at his residence in Chennai, held a joint press conference, joined hands and announced their decision to work together. Panruti Ramachandran, a veteran of the AIADMK who was also expelled for siding with OPS, described their reunion as a “working arrangement” like the CPI and CPI (M). OPS also announced then that Sasikala was not in the meeting since she was travelling and that he would meet her in a fortnight.
Reacting to this, EPS said that “two traitors” have come together and pointed out that AMMK cadre are deserting TTV and joining the AIADMK. “Them coming together has no consequence to us,” EPS told reporters. An EPS supporter said the BJP may definitely broach the subject but there is “no chance” for them to take the trio back or let them be part of the NDA. “Moreover the BJP has lost in Karnataka now. So they are not in a position to take a hard stance,” the AIADMK leader said. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK had allotted only five seats to the BJP.
Political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy says that a weaker OPS will be more beneficial to the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu for the 2024 parliamentary polls. “NDA polled 30% and TTV 5.5% in the 2019 elections, so OPS can increase his tally with TTV,” says Duraisamy. “Though they can poll only in single digits if they go alone, OPS will get a pan-Tamil Nadu sympathy strengthening the DMK-led coalition in weaker pockets and damaging the NDA’s vote bank on an anti-EPS plank. EPS with 62 MLAs and a powerful organisation can poll double digit vote share which would eat into the NDA vote bank.”
