In 2017, BJP and allies were in office in 17 states/UTs as the party kept up the momentum of the Modi wave.
In 2021, BJP retained Assam and formed the government in Puducherry with ally AINRC.
What worked for BJP
1. Not projecting CMs: No CM face in three heartland states ensured local rivalries didn’t turn into bloodletting. Factions came together to work for the party. With big local leaders thinking they all have a chance, they didn’t undercut each other, even as they concentrated on different tasks. The result: An unlikely but working coalition of competitors who, though divided otherwise, worked to push the central leadership’s objectives. Modi’s projection as the sole face of the campaign had the advantage of bringing in voters who supported him but were not enamoured by state satraps. It also took attention away from the ‘fatigue factor’, widely considered to be a risk.
Assembly polls results 2023: Modi Guarantee helped party win in three states, says BJP leader Anil Gupta
2.Focus on corruption: ED’s action against the state governments in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana rendered them vulnerable to the PM’s spirited campaign against corruption. Even in MP, BJP worked hard to ensure that the memory of wads of currency notes being seized from the associates of senior Congress leaders, both in Bhopal and Delhi, did not go away. In Telangana, however, it was Congress that turned out to be the principal beneficiary of the anti-corruption campaigns.
3.Aggressive campaigning on ‘attacks’ on Sanatan Dharma: BJP repeatedly spoke of Congress’s failure to repudiate attacks on Sanatan Dharma by its allies. It proved to be effective in a geography where Hindutva has been on the rise even among those who are not supporters of BJP. Kamal Nath sensed the risk and tried to take corrective measures, but they turned out to be ineffective because of the Congress central leadership’s reluctance to back that up with a bold denunciation of Udaynidhi Stalin and UP’s ‘secular’ grandees. Add to this BJP scaling up attacks on ‘appeasement’ and conversions among tribals in Chhattisgarh. Congress’s decision not to attack Hamas for the October 7 brutal terror attack could have only helped enhance this message.
4.Pro-poor pitch: Modi’s welfare schemes, including free vaccination and foodgrains, helped in a territory marked by pockets of entrenched poverty. It was the first election after the pandemic and the beneficiaries did not skip the first opportunity to hand over a warm ‘thank you’ note. The PM’s effort to identify himself with the ‘poor’, the biggest caste according to him, appears to be working both because of his underprivileged background and the steps he has taken — from subsidised housing to free LPG connections and toilets.
5.Women and tribals: Modi’s targeted effort to expand his constituency among women and tribals also helped. Enactment of women’s quota in legislatures was the icing on the measures he took after his first victory; Ujjwala, toilets and LPG. Combined with Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popular laadli behna, the pro-poor pitch turned out to be a formidable vote-getter. The wooing of tribals, marked by the celebration of tribal legends as well as the messaging via the elevation of Droupadi Murmu as President, paid rich dividends, especially in Chhattisgarh where the party could win only one of the ST seats five years ago.
What didn’t work for Congress
1. Attacking PM Modi is Adani: Ignoring the lessons of 2019 elections where his Rafale deal allegations turned out to be a dud, Rahul Gandhi targeted the PM this time for alleged links with the Adani group. It was not expected to work in states where Congress CMs had welcomed the strong and growing presence of the conglomerate. Little wonder the CMs did not join in the diatribe. The Adani-Modi rhetoric lost further steam when Adani shares started rallying and the Supreme Court refused to endorse the charges against the group.
2. Caste census: Congress’s embrace of ‘caste count’ and ‘jitni abaadi, utna haq’ was too sudden to carry conviction. Coming from a party that had opposed the idea of caste-wise headcount under Nehru and followed up that vision by opposing the Mandal Commission and by withholding the findings of the Socio-Economic Caste Census, the party’s new enthusiasm for this old idea looked too opportunistic to convince voters. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress found itself in a piquant caste situation: the party’s upper caste duo of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh was pitted against the OBC Shivraj Singh Chouhan. In the event, the caste count gambit achieved little except alarming the party’s OBC allies and upper caste supporters.
3. Bharat Jodo Yatra: The party’s handsome win in Karnataka was swiftly attributed to Rahul’s exertions, raising the expectation that it would bring in similar returns in other battles. Rahul had spent considerable time in Rajasthan. Faith in this theory and a surge in the party’s belief in Rahul’s powers were reasons Congress rebuffed requests from INDIA partners for even token gestures of partnership. True, SP and RLD did not bring much to the table in MP and Rajasthan, but concessions would have helped generate the impression of an anti-BJP front taking place and invested the electoral battle with a larger symbolic purpose, besides insulating Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul from the blowback they now will have to face from allies.
4. No answer to appeasement charge: It is now nine years since Congress was done in by BJP’s allegation that it had reduced ‘secularism’ to pandering to Muslim hardliners. The election highlighted once again the party’s continuing struggle to come up with a credible response. The chaos over whether to blame Hamas for the October 7 terror attack on Israeli civilians showcased the problem that is going to get worse in the run-up to and after the consecration of Ram Mandir. The likely implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act will add to that.
5. Graft charges: Congress refused to pay heed to the growing heat on its governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh over corruption. It preferred to dismiss the charges as vendetta. They appear to have stuck, especially in Chhattisgarh, showing that the party has not been able to shake off the perception born during UPA-2’s term. With the PM saying that there would be no let-up in the drive by central agencies, the Congress brass will have to find ways to cushion itself against the possibility of more troubles on this count. The National Herald case is a prime example of what the future may hold.