Programming note: There will be no California Playbook next week. Thanks for reading, and we’ll be back in your inboxes Jan. 2. We hope you all have a lovely holiday!
THE BUZZ: Don’t look now, but Steve Garvey is rounding second.
A just-released POLITICO|Morning Consult poll shows GOP baseball star Garvey catching up with two of his fellow primary contenders, Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, who are in a dead heat behind Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff.
Despite staying relatively quiet since launching his campaign in October, Garvey, who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the 70s and 80s, has managed to stay on-pace with the other, more politically experienced candidates vying for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat. The poll showed Garvey, Porter and Lee in a statistical three-way tie.
Many chalk up his early success to his name recognition — a byproduct of appearing on national television almost every day for more than 15 years — but if he’s able to raise money and mount a compelling campaign, he could find himself listed on the general ballot come November.
“What this poll shows is the potential for him to consolidate Republicans around his candidacy in March,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant who has advised multiple statewide campaigns, including Arnold Schwarzenegger’s bid for governor. “If he comes out in January and starts campaigning … I would think it’s very likely he makes the runoff.”
Here’s the breakdown among likely voters and undecided voters leaning toward a candidate:
- Schiff: 28 percent
- Garvey: 19 percent
- Porter: 17 percent
- Lee: 14 percent
- James P. Bradley (Republican): 7 percent
- Eric Early (Republican): 7 percent
- Christina Pascucci (Democrat): 4 percent
- Denice Gary-Pandol (Republican): 1 percent
- Other/undecided: 3 percent
Garvey’s camp again rebuffed the notion that he hasn’t been campaigning, as we pointed out earlier this month. Matt Shupea spokesperson for the campaign, said the main goal this quarter has been fundraising, and that next year we’ll see more action on the trail. Garvey has made a few public appearances recently, including a visit to the southern border with Republican Rep. Darrell Issa on Wednesday.
“We need to raise money to compete against these career politicians that have raised tens of millions of dollars,” Shupe said. “Moving into next year, you’re going to see him continue to campaign around the state and take his message to voters all around California.”
Other toplines from the POLITICO|Morning Consult poll:
- MENTAL HEALTH MONEY: Proposition 1, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal for a $6.38 billion housing bond and changes to the state’s Mental Health Services Act, received overwhelming support, with 72 percent of likely voters in favor and 28 percent against. (Politician Pro)
- AI ON THE DOCKET: Registered voters were split on their perceptions of artificial intelligence, with 43 percent saying they expect AI to have a positive impact on their lives, while 39 percent said they expect a negative impact, and 18 percent expect it to have none at all. About half said they worried it was coming for their jobs (POLITICO)
- ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR: The U.S. government is doing the right amount to help Israel in its war with Hamas, according to 40 percent of likely California primary voters, with 27 percent saying it’s too much, and 19 percent saying it’s not enough. (POLITICO)
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DOUBLE THE FUN — We have an exciting update for California Playbook readers: Starting Jan. 2, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Thursday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis in the new year as the Legislature returns. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 2nd if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.
CROSSED WIRES — State Sen. Susan Rubiowho’s running for an open House seat in the San Gabriel Valley, is taking flak from an opponent over a mailer that was paid for by her legislative committee but includes a QR code directing voters to her congressional campaign website.
That’s a no-no under federal campaign rules, which prohibit candidates from using non-federal campaign funds to promote their candidacy.
The episode was brought to the attention of the Federal Election Commission after a supporter of former Rep. Gil Cisneros filed a complaint. Cisneros is also running for the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano. The complaint alleges that Rubio’s mailer, labeled a “Legislative Update,” is a guise to promote her federal campaign.
Rubio’s camp said it was a mistake. Michael Soneffher campaign spokesperson, said a consultant not involved in her federal race “submitted an affidavit to the FEC taking full responsibility.”
Soneff mocked Cisneros’ team for “taking a typo to the FEC.” The FEC declined to comment — the agency doesn’t act on most complaints it receives.
GAME OF GAVELS: Rep. Maxine Waters is angling to return as chair of the House Financial Services Committee if Democrats retake the majority. As our colleague Eleanor Mueller reports, Waters’ top priority would be housing affordability and inequity. She has been the committee’s ranking Democrat for a whopping 11 years; 2025 would be her 13th. (POLITICO Pro)
HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS: Ten American citizens imprisoned in Venezuela, including a California businessman, have been freed after the U.S. agreed to swap an ally of President Nicolas Maduro. (Associated Press)
DANGEROUS ROAD: Transportation officials plan to make safety fixes on a deadly stretch of the Pacific Coast Highway near Malibu known as “Dead Man’s Curve.” Four students were killed in a crash there this past fall. (Los Angeles Times)
EV INFLUENCES: Canada is following California’s strict vehicle-emission standardswhich require manufacturers to phase out the sale of most new gas-powered cars by 2035. The country is adopting a similar mandate, and nine other U.S. states have already done the same. (CTV News)
Calling all animal-loving politicos and policy wonks! Send us a photo of your pet getting into the holiday spirit. We just might feature the best ones in this newsletter. Text your best photo to 916-562-0685 (and don’t forget to tell us your pet’s name and any fun details!).
Thanks to all our readers sending in photos! Above, clockwise from the upper left, is GIF Caucus’ cat, Marty; Rocky the reindeer, courtesy of Assemblymember Avelino Valencia (D-Anaheim); and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins’ pups, Joey (white dog) and Mia (brown dog).
BIRTHDAYS — Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) … former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin … Brian Goldsmith … (was Wednesday): Dick Wolf … Beny Alagem
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