Anti-incumbency faded under the glare of the saffron sun on Sunday as BJP won its fifth term in MP – barring a 15-month Congress blip in between – with a landslide 163 of 230 seats.
This was a statement victory from a party in office for nearly two decades, not just brushing aside perceptions of voter fatigue but also ensuring that the BJP goes into the big one, the Lok Sabha election five months from now, with a swagger.
It’s not as if problems like inflation, crop loss and unemployment among the youth disappeared overnight. But a campaign blitzkrieg led by PM Narendra Modi and strategised by Union home minister Amit Shah, backed by the welfarist and emotional outreach of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, gave BJP momentum and a connection with voters that Congress failed to match.
Modi front & centre: “MP Ke Mann Mein Modi” began as a slogan. As the assembly polls approached, it became the writing on the wall. On Sunday, it was the reality. BJP’s campaign turned the focus on PM Modi and the 2024 battle, moving attention away from anti-incumbency and corruption charges against the BJP government. The PM addressed 15 rallies between November 4 and 14, nearly half of them in tribal-dominated districts. Shah spoke at 21 rallies. BJP recorded big victories wherever the PM went.
‘Mama’ plays to gallery: “I run a family, not a government,” he declared. “Bhaiyya” to his “ladli behnas” and “Mama” to the rest, Chouhan tugged at MP’s heartstrings. “You will miss me when I am gone,” he said on his home turf Budhni. Elsewhere, he asked, “Shouldn’t I be CM again?” Aware he wasn’t being projected as CM for the first time, he turned it to his advantage. On Sunday, he said, “This tremendous victory shows people have reposed trust in PM Modi, our double-engine government and welfare schemes.”
Schemes hit target: Eight months before the polls, Chouhan announced an allowance of Rs 1,000 a month for his “ladli behnas”. More than 1.3 crore women registered. The first payment was made on June 10, and in September, it was raised to Rs 1,250 to counter Congress’s promise of Rs 1,500 each. Closer to the polls, the scheme evolved to include gas subsidy and housing. The gambit was that not only women beneficiaries, but their voting family members would be moved, too. It proved to be a masterstroke, with a two-percentage point rise in the turnout of women voters. Modi’s formula of 100% saturation of central and state schemes also worked on a large swathe of MP’s population. For a year, the central and state governments focused on the implementation of all welfare schemes. BJP workers were given the job of registering beneficiaries.
Central command: Sensing anti-incumbency, BJP parachuted central leaders into Madhya Pradesh. Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar led the campaign while Shah took care of strategy with two other Union ministers, Bhupendra Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnaw. Shah said the next CM would be decided by the party, which helped unite factions. Shah also fixed a target of 150 seats, with a 51% vote share in every booth. This galvanised the ranks.
Cong overwhelmed: Congress had no answer to Modi’s campaign blitz. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra addressed eight rallies each between October 31 and November 15, but were overwhelmed by Modi and Shah. Modi, Shah and BJP chief JP Nadda repeatedly attacked the opposition alliance INDIA as “anti-Sanatani” and a “ghamandiya gathbandhan” (arrogant alliance). Stalin Jr’s comments on Sanatan Dharma came at the worst possible time for Congress, giving BJP fodder to step up the attack.
Kamal Nath, who led the Congress campaign, cancelled a planned INDIA rally in Bhopal.
‘Jai-Veeru’ misses Scindia: Congress’s campaign was led by Kamal Nath and former CM Digvijaya Singh, referred to as “Jai-Veeru” from Sholay. But the next rung was sorely missed. Congress didn’t have the combative commanders who would take the fight to BJP. Digvijaya’s son Jaivardhan and former minister Jitu Patwari tried, but Congress missed Jyotiraditya Scindia’s aggressive campaign of 2018. Congress also couldn’t match BJP’s ground deployment despite going into the polls with 58,000 booth workers – its highest ever.
It paled before BJP’s 41 lakh registered workers with deep booth-level penetration. “In this contest of democracy, we accept the decision made by voters of Madhya Pradesh. As the opposition party, we will continue to perform our duties. I congratulate BJP and hope that the way people of the state have supported them, they will work to fulfil their expectations,” Nath said on Sunday.
This was a statement victory from a party in office for nearly two decades, not just brushing aside perceptions of voter fatigue but also ensuring that the BJP goes into the big one, the Lok Sabha election five months from now, with a swagger.
It’s not as if problems like inflation, crop loss and unemployment among the youth disappeared overnight. But a campaign blitzkrieg led by PM Narendra Modi and strategised by Union home minister Amit Shah, backed by the welfarist and emotional outreach of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, gave BJP momentum and a connection with voters that Congress failed to match.
Modi front & centre: “MP Ke Mann Mein Modi” began as a slogan. As the assembly polls approached, it became the writing on the wall. On Sunday, it was the reality. BJP’s campaign turned the focus on PM Modi and the 2024 battle, moving attention away from anti-incumbency and corruption charges against the BJP government. The PM addressed 15 rallies between November 4 and 14, nearly half of them in tribal-dominated districts. Shah spoke at 21 rallies. BJP recorded big victories wherever the PM went.
‘Mama’ plays to gallery: “I run a family, not a government,” he declared. “Bhaiyya” to his “ladli behnas” and “Mama” to the rest, Chouhan tugged at MP’s heartstrings. “You will miss me when I am gone,” he said on his home turf Budhni. Elsewhere, he asked, “Shouldn’t I be CM again?” Aware he wasn’t being projected as CM for the first time, he turned it to his advantage. On Sunday, he said, “This tremendous victory shows people have reposed trust in PM Modi, our double-engine government and welfare schemes.”
Schemes hit target: Eight months before the polls, Chouhan announced an allowance of Rs 1,000 a month for his “ladli behnas”. More than 1.3 crore women registered. The first payment was made on June 10, and in September, it was raised to Rs 1,250 to counter Congress’s promise of Rs 1,500 each. Closer to the polls, the scheme evolved to include gas subsidy and housing. The gambit was that not only women beneficiaries, but their voting family members would be moved, too. It proved to be a masterstroke, with a two-percentage point rise in the turnout of women voters. Modi’s formula of 100% saturation of central and state schemes also worked on a large swathe of MP’s population. For a year, the central and state governments focused on the implementation of all welfare schemes. BJP workers were given the job of registering beneficiaries.
Central command: Sensing anti-incumbency, BJP parachuted central leaders into Madhya Pradesh. Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar led the campaign while Shah took care of strategy with two other Union ministers, Bhupendra Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnaw. Shah said the next CM would be decided by the party, which helped unite factions. Shah also fixed a target of 150 seats, with a 51% vote share in every booth. This galvanised the ranks.
Cong overwhelmed: Congress had no answer to Modi’s campaign blitz. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra addressed eight rallies each between October 31 and November 15, but were overwhelmed by Modi and Shah. Modi, Shah and BJP chief JP Nadda repeatedly attacked the opposition alliance INDIA as “anti-Sanatani” and a “ghamandiya gathbandhan” (arrogant alliance). Stalin Jr’s comments on Sanatan Dharma came at the worst possible time for Congress, giving BJP fodder to step up the attack.
Kamal Nath, who led the Congress campaign, cancelled a planned INDIA rally in Bhopal.
‘Jai-Veeru’ misses Scindia: Congress’s campaign was led by Kamal Nath and former CM Digvijaya Singh, referred to as “Jai-Veeru” from Sholay. But the next rung was sorely missed. Congress didn’t have the combative commanders who would take the fight to BJP. Digvijaya’s son Jaivardhan and former minister Jitu Patwari tried, but Congress missed Jyotiraditya Scindia’s aggressive campaign of 2018. Congress also couldn’t match BJP’s ground deployment despite going into the polls with 58,000 booth workers – its highest ever.
It paled before BJP’s 41 lakh registered workers with deep booth-level penetration. “In this contest of democracy, we accept the decision made by voters of Madhya Pradesh. As the opposition party, we will continue to perform our duties. I congratulate BJP and hope that the way people of the state have supported them, they will work to fulfil their expectations,” Nath said on Sunday.