Battle lines for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have been drawn with less than three months left for the Model Code of Conduct to be invoked. In 2019, election dates were announced on March 10. With both the NDA and INDIA blocs initiating seat distribution talks, the bugle for the grand finale has been blown.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, the captain of the NDA, enters the fray in good form having defeated Congress 3-0 in the Hindi heartland states that went to polls recently. The form of Congress, the uncrowned captain of the INDIA bloc, is of concern to the alliance partners, as it is going through a rough patch. Though, good news is that Congress is showing signs of revival in the crucial Southern India pitch which sends a quarter of MPs to Lok Sabha.
Changes in circumstances, apart from the form of the two main players, has resulted in quite contrasting strategies for the BJP and Congress going into the 2024 polls. To note, the BJP accounts for more than 90 per cent of seats and a vote share of the NDA, while the Congress have 50 per cent vote share and a third of seats of the INDIA bloc.
Allies rock NDA boat, force BJP to take responsibility
In 2019, the BJP contested on 435 seats, leaving the rest for their allies in a house of 543. It won 303 seats, and was a runner-up in 72, and second runner-up with 31 seats. It did not contest 23 seats each in Maharashtra and Bihar, 34 in Tamil Nadu, and 10 in Punjab.
Four key allies, SAD (Punjab; 10 seats), AIADMK (Tamil Nadu; 21 seats), JDU (Bihar; 17 seats), SHS (Uddhav Sena; 22 seats) and RLP (Rajasthan; 1 seat) have left the NDA. These parties contested 71 seats in 2019.
Today, the party cannot boast of a single ally who has more than 10 seats in Lok Sabha except for Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde). In fact, it doesn’t have many prominent allies left who opened their account in Lok Sabha in 2019, namely SHS (Eknath Shinde), NCP (Ajit Pawar), LJP (Paswan family), Apna Dal, and some parties from the North East.
The BJP has more or less compensated for the loss of Shiv Sena in Maharashtra by inducting a faction led by Eknath Shinde (now recognised as official Sena by ECI) and another led by Ajit Pawar from the NCP. The majority of 22 seats which Sena contested in 2019 may be split between these two parties.
In Bihar, the BJP inducted HAM and RLSP, while all MLAs of VIP merged with the party. However, these smaller parties would not be able to contest all the 17 seats that fell vacant with the exit of Nitish Kumar’s party from the NDA.
This implies that the BJP will have to contest more seats in 2024 vis-a-vis 2019. These seats are likely to be from Punjab, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh (depending upon Pawan Kalyan’s call to tie up with the TDP), and a few seats in North East, Meghalaya, Mizoram.
Allies hop on to INDIA bandwagon, force Congress to step back
In 2019, Congress contested on 422 seats leaving the rest for their allies, in a house of 543. INC won 52 seats, and was a runner-up in 209, and second runner-up in 99 seats. The Congress, unlike the BJP, has expanded its bloc with the induction of new allies like TMC, SP, JD(U), AAP, SHS (Uddhav), and Left Parties. This is likely to change the electoral dynamics in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Delhi, and Kerala.
The party will need to sacrifice seats as it is the junior partner in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which account for 122 seats. In Maharashtra, where it contested 25 seats in 2019, it may have to settle for less as there are now three claimants SHS (Uddhav), NCP (Sharad Pawar). In Punjab and Delhi, it might need to share seats with AAP if the alliance fructifies. In Kerala, an alliance looks difficult between CPM and Congress.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee opined during the recent INDIA bloc meeting that Congress should contest 300 seats, leaving the rest 243 for the regional parties. The party was second runner-up in 99 seats, most of which it is likely to be asked to give up in 2024. Eighty-eight of these 99 seats are “BJP versus regional parties” direct contest seats.
To sum up, the BJP, which has the best strike rate in the NDA, is likely to contest many more seats, going up to 500. Congress, which has a poor strike rate, is likely to contest much fewer seats, up to 300 in 2024. The NDA is projecting its captain, while the INDIA bloc is shielding.
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author)