(Bloomberg) — Pfizer Inc. shares are set to enter the new year trading near the lowest level in a decade, yet Wall Street is increasingly hesitant to bet on a recovery after the drugmaker issued a disappointing 2024 outlook this week.
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The pharmaceutical giant’s stock has plunged 49% so far this year, on track for its worst year on record, according to Bloomberg’s annual performance data going back to 1981. The 2023 decline has erased about $140 billion in market value amid skepticism that the company will be successful in its transition out of the pandemic as demand for shots and treatments for Covid-19 wanes.
The weak forecast on Wednesday is denting the case that a recent purchase of cancer drugmaker, Seagen Inc., would help plug the revenue void from diminishing Covid business. Wall Street analysts are struggling to see a bounce back from Pfizer’s post-pandemic rout, with a few trimming their price target on the stock by an average of 12% this week.
“While we think downside could be limited after this guidance down revision, we struggle to see an upside case,” Wells Fargo analyst Mohit Bansal wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
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The announcement marks the second time in two months that the drugmaker’s sales outlook has disappointed Wall Street. In mid-October, Pfizer slashed its revenue and earnings forecast for the 2023 year after it agreed to take back doses of Paxlovid from the US government amid waning demand.
Pfizer’s stock has plunged roughly 58% from its December 2021 peak when its market capitalization was above $300 billion. Shares have been under pressure as optimism waned for future Covid sales and investors look ahead to the next big blockbuster beyond the vaccine.
“We do not see a clear path for the stock to recover given the ongoing uncertainty on the company’s core earnings power,” JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott wrote in a Wednesday note.
The drugmaker’s foray into weight-loss treatments has hit roadblocks. This year, the firm had to halt the development of two obesity pills. Wall Street has been divided on Pfizer’s fate with 13 of the 28 analysts tracked by Bloomberg rating it a buy and 15 rating it a hold.
Wells Fargo’s Bansal, who has a hold rating, says the drugmaker’s recovery hinges on its non-Covid business, adding that “stocks typically take time to recover from major shocks and we think this could be a work in progress stock for 2024.”
Rival shotmaker Moderna Inc. is also suffering from a pullback in demand as it struggles to position itself beyond its blockbuster Spikevax vaccine. Its stock has also plummeted about 85% from its 2021 pandemic peak.
Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar said Pfizer’s 2024 forecast “is suggestive of further decline in global demand for this vaccine end-market” and further highlights the downside risk to Moderna’s own 2024 outlook.
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