Recency bias creates the impression that the pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the most intense recruitment of a Japanese pitcher we’ve seen. The large number of big-market teams engaged with Yamamoto certainly qualifies his free agency as unusual. But the fervor surrounding the right-hander is not all that different from the excitement generated by Daisuke Matsuzaka during the 2006-07 offseason, Yu Darvish during 2011-12 and Masahiro Tanaka during 2013-14. And for that matter, Shohei Ohtani during 2017-18.
Ohtani, obviously, is in a separate category, and not simply because he is a two-way player. He was 23 when he signed, and his age restricted his bonus under international amateur signing rules to $2.3 million. The better comparisons for Yamamoto are Matsuzaka, Darvish and Tanaka, who faced no salary limits.
Like Yamamoto, Darvish and Tanaka were entering their age 25 seasons. Matsuzaka was a bit older, entering his age 26 campaign. Looking back, as the bidding for Yamamoto intensifies, their major-league experiences could be viewed as at least somewhat instructive.
As The Athletic’s Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris explained in separate articlesthe objective information available on Yamamoto, from pitch-grade evaluation to biomechanical analysis, is much more extensive than it was for any of his predecessors. Still, nothing is guaranteed.
Matsuzaka, who joined the Boston Red Sox on a six-year, $52 million contract after the team won his rights with a $51.11 million posting fee, made a combined 61 starts in his first two seasons with Boston, 55 in his final four. His injuries included a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. His adjusted ERA with the Red Sox was barely above league average, and after his contract expired he spent two unremarkable seasons with the New York Mets.
Darvish, who joined the Texas Rangers on a six-year, $56 million deal in addition to a $51.7 million posting fee, is perhaps the most successful of all Japanese pitchers, a two-time Cy Young Award runner-up and five-time All-Star entering his 12th major-league season. He also has had elbow issues, requiring Tommy John surgery in 2015, arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2018 and a shutdown stemming from a stress reaction at the end of 2023. But his career adjusted ERA is 17 percent above league average. Zack Greinke, a strong Hall of Fame candidate, is 21 percent above.
Tanaka, who joined the New York Yankees on a seven-year, $155 million free-agent deal, also enjoyed a successful major-league run, even after getting diagnosed with a partially torn elbow ligament in his first season. Avoiding surgery, he averaged 27 starts in his six full seasons before the shortened 2020 campaign. According to FanGraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Tanaka slightly outperformed his contract with his regular-season performance. He also was a stalwart in the postseason, producing a 3.33 ERA in 10 starts.
At his best, even Matsuzaka showed why he was so hyped — in his second season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA and led the majors in opponents’ batting average. Yet even Darvish’s full body of work demonstrates the risk of awarding a deal of 10 or more years to Yamamoto, who has never pitched in the majors, and while extremely athletic, is only 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds. Major-league executives, though, do not seem deterred by his smallish stature.
Yamamoto, based on the heated competition in the open market, could more than double Tanaka’s contract, not including a posting fee that could exceed $50 million. The buzz surrounding him almost certainly is justified. The decisions teams make today are more informed than ever before. Just know he isn’t the first 25-ish Japanese pitcher to create this kind of stir, and he won’t be the last.
Next up, at some point in the next several years: Roki Sasaki, 22.
What to do with Burnes
The Milwaukee Brewers’ willingness to trade right-hander Corbin Burnes remains unclear. But the possibility exists that the team might carry Burnes into the season because of owner Mark Attanasio’s desire to compete and avoid the type of backlash the team received for trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline, according to major-league sources briefed on the team’s thinking.
If the Brewers fail to contend, they could move Burnes at the 2024 deadline and receive a comparable or perhaps even better return, as long as he stays healthy. The problem at the moment for teams open to trading starting pitching is that numerous free agents remain available. Of those, only Blake Snell would require the loss of a draft pick. The others cost only money, enabling teams to keep their picks and prospects.
Also reducing the Brewers’ chances of a significant return: Burnes is projected to earn $15.1 million in his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Unlike Tyler Glasnowwho last week went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Los Angeles Dodgersteams view him as unlikely to sign an extension. Burnes’ agent, Scott Boras, generally prefers his clients to establish their values on the open market. Glasnow is represented by the Wasserman Media Group, which historically is more open to such deals.
Attanasio, then, might very well be thinking: Why do this? Why not try to compete first? The Brewers have proven quite adept at maximizing limited resources, making the playoffs in five of the past six seasons. All of those postseason appearances, however, came under Craig Counsell as manager. Which, come to think of it, might be another reason for Attanasio to hold Burnes and, for that matter, shortstop Willy Adames. Surely, the owner would love to best Counsell, who bolted for the rival Chicago Cubs.
The problem with keeping Burnes is that he could get injured before the deadline or perhaps even decline in performance. If the Brewers contend, trades of Burnes and Adames would seem out of the question for an organization that remains scarred by the Hader fallout. So for Burnes, Adames and Brandon Woodruff, who was non-tendered coming off shoulder surgery, the Brewers could end up with only two draft picks — one if they decline to make Adames a qualifying offer.
Proactive, low-revenue teams such as the Rays and Cleveland Guardians rarely get caught in such positions. They try to act sooner rather than later, which is precisely what the Brewers did with Hader, who wound up netting them William Contreras and highly regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser.
Perhaps the best way to look at it is like this: What would the Brewers’ NL Central rivals prefer them to do? Fortify the club long-term by trading Burnes or Adames for players who would add to the team’s existing young talent? Or take one last shot with Burnes and Adames in 2024, then lose one or both of them for only draft picks?
The answer seems obvious. But for Attanasio, the choice might not be easy.
Inequities in pre-arb bonus pool?
The pre-arbitration bonus pool is intended to provide additional compensation for players with zero to three years of service. But in 2023, the second year of the system, a significant chunk of money went to players who already are well-compensated.
According to numbers obtained by The Associated Pressthree of the top four performance-based bonuses were awarded to players signed to long-term extensions — Julius Rodriguez ($210 million), Corbin Carroll ($111 million) and Spencer Strider ($75 million). Together, the three received an additional $5,370,519, accounting for more than 10 percent of the $50 million pool.
Why not disqualify players with long-term guarantees from the pool, enabling the money to be distributed to players who lack such security? The union sought to do just that in the last round of collective bargaining, according to sources briefed on the discussions. Money from the bonus pool, the union believed, might help discourage 0-to-3s from signing below-market extensions.
The league declined to satisfy the union’s request, reasoning that a player who earns a bonus should receive it, regardless of his contractual status. Extensions for 0-to-3 players generally include low salaries in the early years, with the big money coming later. Rodríguez and Carroll, however, received signing bonuses of $15 million and $5 million, respectively (Strider’s deal did not include a signing bonus).
Adjustments to the way the money is distributed are extremely unlikely during the current CBA, which runs through Dec. 1, 2026. But the union in the next round of bargaining is certain to renew its attempt to increase the size of the pool from $50 million. And if 0-to-3s with long-term guarantees keep earning the top bonuses, a re-examination of how the money is distributed might be in order.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Yamamoto: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images)