Chasing their first AL West crown since 2001, the Mariners will hit the season’s halfway point on Monday with a stronghold on the division lead over Houston and Texas.
Over the first three months, there have been promising indicators that this will be the year the Mariners final close on that elusive division title.
There are lingering questions, too, and Times beat writers Ryan Divish and Adam Jude answer a few of them about the Mariners and what to expect in the second half of the season:
1. Will the Mariners be able to hold onto their lead atop the AL West? Why or why not?
Division: I expect the Mariners to hold on to their lead and win the American League West based on the factors that allowed them to ascend to the top spot — their superior starting pitching and the Astros and Rangers struggles to keep their rotation healthy and productive.
Seattle’s starting pitchers, and their ability to produce quality starts, help the team avoid extended losing streaks. It’s also their dominance at home — an MLB best 2.48 ERA with opponents producing a .198/.244/.316 slash line — that will help stave off any runs from the Rangers and Astros.
Seattle came into Saturday with a 44-34 record and seven games up on Houston (36-40) and 7.5 up Texas (35-40).
If the Mariners simply played .500 for their remaining 84 games, they’d finish with an 86-76 record. For the Astros (36-40) to match that, they’d have to 50-36 the rest of the way and the Rangers (35-40) would have to go 51-36. Neither team looks capable of ripping off that sort of run given their pitching issues.
Jude: If they continue to pitch well, the Mariners will celebrate a division title in September. With elite their pitching staff, and with their solid defense, they’ve proven they are a good team. If they can get even an incremental improvement from the offense, they have a chance to be an elite team — one capable of running away with the division. Because of the Mariners’ inconsistent play on the road, though, the race figures to intensify over the season’s final few weeks. You can count on either the Astros or Rangers — or both — to make a serious run in the second half too. The Rangers’ pitching staff is starting to get healthy, and the Astros’ lineup is good enough to overcome their pitching woes. As it did last season, the division title could again come down to the final few days with those three teams.
2. What’s the biggest concern about this team heading into the second half?
Jude: It’s the same issue that’s hampered the Mariners all season — same one that’s hampered them the past several seasons. It’s the offense, obviously. More pointedly, it’s the excessive swing-and-miss in this lineup. The Mariners have led MLB in strikeout rate all season, and their 27.5% strikeout rate is on pace to shatter the all-time record.
This is probably a good time to talk about the center fielder, too. Incredibly, Julio Rodriguez has a negative offensive value from FanGraphs through his first 325 plate appearances. Rodriguez had an fWAR of 5.7 and 5.6 in his first two seasons, respectively; this season, he’s on pace for a 2.4 fWAR. That’s a dramatic drop-off. It’s a decent bet that J-Rod will pick things up in the second half of the season — he’s been tremendous in the second half in his first two seasons — but there is no guarantee that will happen given some of the inconsistencies in his swing mechanics so far this year. Bottom line: The Mariners need more, much more, from their most talented player if they want to be a legitimate contender in the playoffs.
Division: To me, pitching health is the main concern. The offense, which has been comically bad to tragically awful for much of the season, will show some improvement because, really, it can’t get worse. We’ve seen hints of improvement:
March/April: 30 games, 3.6 runs per game, .217/.296/.353 slash line, 31 homers, 9.3% walk rate, 28.7% strikeout rate
May: 29 games, 3.7 runs per game, .227/.295/.374 slash line, 32 homers, 7.3% walk rate, 27.4% strikeout rate
June: 19 games to date, 4.5 runs per game, .212/.311/.380 slash line, 22 homers, 11% walk rate, 26% strikeout rate
But we’ve seen how injuries to the starting pitching and bullpen have played a role this season. The Mariners can ill-afford to lose one of their five starters for an extended period, which is why they’ve erred on the side of caution (and frustration for fans) when it comes to extending them in games. The absence of Matt Brash and Gregory Santos has been an issue early in the season along with the struggles and subsequent injured-list stint for left Gaby Speier. The Mariners don’t have the power leverage arms to compliment Andres Munoz and Ryne Stanek. Brash won’t be coming back, but Santos should be back by mid-July.
3. Will the Mariners make a move before the July 30 trade deadline? And what’s their greatest need?
Division: The Mariners should really add another reliever with late-game experience and the ability to generate swings and misses. It’s a market that should have a great supply of impact talent as compared to the position player market. The Mariners seem destined to play in games decided by two runs or fewer on most nights. Adding an additional reliever (or two) to supplement the bullpen would be ideal for the final months of the season and the post.
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Jude: The Mariners, we know, will try to be aggressive leading up to the deadline. That’s just how Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander roll. And ownership indicated to The Times that the resources would be available to make a trade. The problem, though, is a dearth of impact bats available on the market — as things stand, Luis Robert Jr. might end up being the only true middle-of-the-order hitter on the trade block. Things are so tight in the NL wild-card standings that it’s difficult to see the Mets parting with Pete Alonso or the Diamondbacks dealing Christian Walker. And would the Blue Jays really trade Vlad Guerrero Jr.? (Seems unlikely.)
Robert would come at a high cost — two top-100 prospects, plus at least one more secondary piece — but as has been suggested here before, he’s worth it. Robert’s career OPS of .824 is higher than anyone on the Mariners’ roster, and he would instantly tilt the trajectory of the M’s lineup — a hitter who would legitimately strike fear in an opposing pitcher. Side note: If you’re obsessing over Robert’s batting average this season, stop it — you’re wasting your time. He’s a career .275 hitter, and if you want to get worked up over small-sample data, check out his .393 average and .952 OPS in 31 playoff plate appearance.)