New Delhi: Former US President Donald Trump is currently in the headlines. Meanwhile, Trump’s loyalists, excited by the party convention held last week, are talking about a landslide victory of around or more than 400 electoral votes amid the chaos in the Democratic Party. In PM Modi’s language, they are raising the slogan “Ab ki baar 400 paar”.
To capture the White House, you need 270 of the 538 electoral votes spread across the 50 states – Democrats and Republicans draw roughly 20 each, leaving just 10 “toss-up” states that could go either way. The party that wins the popular vote in each state (by any margin) usually takes all of the state’s electoral votes, which are equivalent to the number of representatives (varies by population) and senators (always two per state, regardless of population) in Congress.
Where is the challenge?
Thus, California, the most populous state, has 54 electoral votes (it has 52 representatives and two senators) and Wyoming, the least populous, has only three electoral votes (it has one representative and two senators). California last voted Republican in the Reagan era, but after Bill Clinton flipped it in 1992, it has become a Democratic stronghold and this is not expected to change.
Current polls indicate that Republicans led by Trump are on track to win 251 electoral votes, and need only 19 votes from about a half-dozen states to reach 270, ten of which could change. They could do so by winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) or any two other states, such as Michigan (15) and Nevada (6); or Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10); or a combination of Michigan and Wisconsin. There are at least five combinations that could give Trump more than 270 votes.
The score has not crossed 400 in America since 1992
The last landslide victory in the most lopsided election in US history was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won 525 electoral votes against Democrat Walter Mondale, who got only 13 electoral votes. Reagan’s successor George Bush Sr. also won a landslide victory in 1988, winning 426 electoral votes against Michael Dukakis, who got only 111. These are among only 15 instances in US electoral history when a party or candidate has managed to get “over 400”. Since 1992, no candidate has surpassed 400 electoral votes.
Tags: Donald Trump, US Presidential Election 2024
FIRST PUBLISHED : July 22, 2024, 10:34 IST