The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Center released its list for Delhi elections on Saturday. In this list, BJP has fielded a total of 29 candidates. These 29 seats also include the seats of AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and current Delhi CM Atishi. On Kejriwal’s New Delhi assembly seat, BJP has fielded former MP Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma, while on the Kalkaji seat, BJP has fielded former South Delhi MP Ramesh Bidhuri against Atishi. It is being said that BJP has played a big gamble by fielding these two leaders in front of Kejriwal and Atishi. It is being said that BJP has tried to trap both the stalwarts of AAP in the electoral battle. But if we look at New Delhi seat, is it really going to create any problem for Kejriwal?
Kejriwal has been continuously contesting elections from New Delhi Assembly seat since 2013. In the 2013 elections held in the ‘tsunami’ of the post-Anna movement, Arvind Kejriwal had defeated the then Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit. After this, Kejriwal has defeated BJP’s Nupur Sharma in 2015 and BJP’s Sunil Kumar Yadav in 2020. But in these three victories, a unique record has been created in the name of Kejriwal.
Kejriwal won by securing more than 50 percent votes
During all the three elections, Kejriwal has got more than 50 percent votes every time. The general mathematics of voting politics is that if someone gets more than 50 percent of the votes, it is impossible to defeat him. Till now the situation of Arvind Kejriwal on New Delhi seat has been similar. Kajriwal got 53.46% votes in 2013 elections, 64.34% votes in 2015 and 61.10% votes in 2020. This means that in the last three elections, no rival candidate has been able to bring Arvind Kejriwal even in an equal contest.
Therefore, looking at the history of the last three elections, we can say that Arvind Kejriwal is not going to face much trouble on the New Delhi seat. However, this is just an estimate and the stakes in the election game can slip away from anyone’s hands at any time.
West Delhi was the workplace of Pravesh Verma.
On the other hand, Pravesh Verma, to whom BJP has given ticket, till now his workplace has been the area of West Delhi Lok Sabha seat. Pravesh Verma also has a unique record in his name. He had achieved the biggest victory in the history of the state from the West Delhi seat during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He defeated his rival Mahabal Mishra by 5.78 lakh votes.
However, BJP did not field Pravesh Verma as its candidate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. From that time it was believed that Parvesh Verma could be brought into Delhi politics. Same thing happened. However, Parvesh’s path to return to Delhi politics seems quite difficult. In front is Arvind Kejriwal, who till now has been defeating his rivals badly in the electoral battle. Parvesh Verma had also contested assembly elections from Mehrauli seat in 2013. Then he was defeated. Now this time the assembly elections are a big challenge for them.
Why did Atishi’s path become difficult on Kalkaji seat?
On the other side is the seat of current CM Atishi Marlena. BJP has created a big problem for Atishi by fielding Ramesh Bidhuri on this seat. Congress has already fielded Alka Lamba as a woman candidate on this seat. In such a situation, if Alka Lamba is successful in making a dent in the women votes, then it may create a big problem for Atishi.
Before this, Atishi had contested two elections in Delhi. In one election she was defeated badly, while in the other she won in a close fight. The first contest was the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In this election, Atishi had contested against BJP candidate Gautam Gambhir from East Delhi seat. Atishi was defeated in this election by 4.77 lakh votes. She stood third.
The second contest was the 2020 assembly elections. The seat was Kalkaji. BJP’s Dharambir, contesting against Atishi on this seat, had secured 44,504 votes. Whereas Atishi got 55,897 votes. The victory margin between the two was only 11 thousand votes. In 2015, AAP’s candidate had won the same seat by about 20 thousand votes. When Atishi won the election, AAP’s victory margin had reduced.
BJP’s grassroots leader Bidhuri can change the game
Now in this election, BJP has fielded grassroots leader Ramesh Bidhuri, which may increase the difficulty for Atishi. Ramesh Bidhuri is considered to have a very good hold on Gurjar votes in South Delhi. After being MLA from Tughlakabad seat thrice, he has also been MP from South Delhi Lok Sabha seat for two consecutive terms in 2014 and 2019.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Bidhuri defeated AAP candidate Raghav Chadha and Congress candidate Vijender Singh by a large margin. After Bidhuri coming to Kalkaji seat, now Atishi will have to spend more time on her seat. Perhaps this is also BJP’s strategy.
If Muslim and women votes are divided…
On the other hand, Congress is currently at loggerheads with AAP regarding Muslim votes. Congress has fielded more Muslim candidates than AAP. In such a situation, if Muslim votes turn towards Congress in Kalkaji seat, then it can be a big problem for AAP. If Alka Lamba is successful in cutting women and Muslim votes, then there may be shocking results on this seat.
Delhi Elections 2025: Who is the minority face of AAP? In 2020, all Muslim candidates had achieved a landslide victory.