Some experts have predicted that the two countries might restrict the conflict to exchange of fire on two sides of what was the Line of Control (LOC)—instead of launching an all-out war involving all the army, air force, and navy. There have been multiple violations of ceasefire by Pakistan along the LOC in the Poonch and Kupwara districts of Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian Army said on Monday, 28 April. The army has responded with small firearms. There was no casualty on the Indian side.
For decades, Islamabad has successfully blackmailed China by utilising its need to keep India under pressure through cross-border terrorism.
Pakistan, which has a meagre foreign exchange reserve of $10 billion (India has $640 billion), is in no position to pay for the additional arms it is seeking. Besides, Pakistan has failed to repay its loans under CPEC, forcing Beijing to re-roll the installments amounting to $6 billion last month.
China recently joined Saudi Arabia and the UAE to extend a $5 billion loan to Pakistan which is close to bankruptcy. Pakistan has demanded an additional $1.4 billion from Beijing. It will make more demands from China and its Arab partners if the conflict picks up momentum.
After India announced that it was putting the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, several Pakistani experts suggested that China should give India a taste of its medicine by blocking the water flow in the Brahmaputra which originates in Tibet.
The question is whether China is capable of blocking the water flow, and, would it listen to Pakistan’s request. China has announced plans to build a large hydropower dam on Yarlung Zangbo, as the Brahmaputra is called in China. But it will take 4-5 years for the project to be completed.
Even after it is completed, China may find it difficult to apply brakes on the mighty river without flooding some of its own areas.
