I need not have fretted because I woke up to six screaming newspaper headlines that broke down a complex prognosis into a pretty simple call:
India and Pakistan Will Figure it Out, ‘One Way or Another’: Trump (Indian Express)
The report quoted a crackling Presidential comment. “I am very close to India, and very close to Pakistan … they’ve had that fight for 1,000 years, (there have been) tensions on that border for 1,500 years”. Huh! Trump’s incredible sense of history says it all! America will be hands-off and transactional. You give me zero duty on Harleys, I will give you one vote in the United Nations. You place an order for a squadron of F-35s, I will veto on your behalf!!
Pakistan, Backed by China, Dilutes United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Statement (Sunday Times);
India, China Move to Normalise Ties, Kailash Mansarovar Yatra to Resume in June After 5 Years (Indian Express)
There’s China’s dual role laid bare. So perhaps they will initially help Pakistan ratchet up the military talk, but after a few days of fierce fighting, clamp down hard on Islamabad to cease fire, and swivel to India saying, “See we swatted the hawks of Rawalpindi General Headquarters (GHQ), now please talk trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with us”.
After Diplomatic Steps, a Range of Retaliatory Options on Govt Table (Indian Express);
‘Flood alert’: PoK Claims India Released Water (Sunday Times)
Clearly, India will hit hard, from all sides, and make a big media brouhaha about it. But then, in deference to the “pleas from global allies”, India will, statesmanlike, declare victory and stop the missiles, but keep the diplomatic offensive on full boil.
Pak Trots Out its Familiar Post-Attack line: Open to Any ‘Neutral’ Probe (Indian Express)
Pakistan will want to be seen as hitting back forcefully, perhaps also notch up a couple of “trophy slashes”. They will up the “blood rhetoric” to pump up citizens’ adrenalin, but then quickly do a volte face to “accept” the end of hostilities.
That’s how the “Pahalgam War” will end. Unfortunately, the battles and skirmishes may continue much longer.
