After 2014, Modi rode in on the the twin planks of welfarism (more so after 2019), and a combination of Hindutva-centric campaigns and legislations (like ending triple talaq and granting citizenship to non-Muslims from neighbouring nations).
Predictably, in 2022, when the demand for nationwide caste census began gathering support, the BJP as well as the RSS remained ambivalent, even opposing it.
In time, especially in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron brigade labelled the demand for caste census—most vocally championed for by Rahul Gandhi—in perjorative terms such as “destructive” and “divisive”. Modi even alleged that the demand was on top of the agenda of “urban naxals”.
This was ironic because one of the factors behind the BJP’s electoral success after 2014 was its conscious decision to wean away several non-dominant sub-castes among the OBCs and Dalits.
Despite this, the Hindutva forces were anxious about the repercussions of the caste census—would the level of support for the Hindu majoritarian idea, which progressively increased over decades, get eroded in the wake of the exercise?
Modi’s decision at this juncture, prompted in no small measure by the RSS brass, was impelled by two factors.
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One, he and others in the political fraternity concluded that the idea’s time had come and it was increasingly becoming difficult for the BJP to keep stonewalling the demand. Further delay could have been advantageous for the Opposition, especially Rahul Gandhi.
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Two, Modi and others within the RSS are increasingly of the opinion that the societal threshold of support for Hindutva—and correspondingly for Islamophobia or prejudice towards Muslims—has been reached.
Consequently, despite existing cleavages on caste lines, which may get temporarily deepened by the caste census and subsequent steps of the government, pan-Hindu unity will resurface as and when required.
For instance, after the gruesome terrorist strike in Pahalgam, a significant section responded as Hindus, members of a community whose representatives were gunned down after identification.
In the Modi era, the BJP has not just enhanced the number of its MPs and MLAs from the OBCs, but these castes also have a fair representation among the leadership.
The BJP adroitly used the fact that Modi’s Modh Ghanchi caste was included in the OBC state list in 1994 and in the central list in 1999 when Modi held no legislative or executive position.
The RSS leadership, however, remains predominantly ‘upper caste’ and after the government decision to enumerate caste along with the next census, it too shall have to follow suit. Whether the next Sarsghchalak is from one of the ‘lower castes’ is to be seen; the pressure certainly shall be there.
Given that Gandhi has already demanded that the 50 percent reservation limit must be raised by required legislative change, it is probable that the government will move in this direction once census data is available, possibly in 2027 at the earliest.
But, to ensure that the Hindu identity remains paramount over individual caste identity, the Sangh Parivar will have to keep Hindutva issues actively in play.
This certainly shall pose new challenges nationally and usher in a different era of caste politics. Crucial in the emergence of the new order will be the response of minorities and the impact these changes will have on India’s political narrative.
(The writer is a veteran journalist based in Delhi-NCR and the author of books including ‘The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project’ and ‘Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times’. His X handle is @NilanjanUdwin. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
