The onset of monsoon over Kerala will likely be around June 4, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, highlighting a slight delay. The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
“This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely be slightly delayed than normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on 4th June with a model error of ± 4 days,” the IMD said in a statement.
The six predictors of monsoon onset used in the models are: i) Minimum Temperatures over Northwest India ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over Southeast Indian Ocean (v) Mean sea level pressure over Subtropical NW Pacific Ocean (vi) Upper tropospheric zonal wind over North East Indian Ocean.
Last year, the onset of monsoon over Kerala occurred on May 29, two days after IMD’s predicted date. The operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 18 years (2005-2022) were proved to be correct except in 2015, the IMD said.
Meanwhile, the Met department said that duststorms and dust-raising winds are very likely in isolated pockets over Haryana and Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next three days and over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha region during the next two days.
“Heatwave conditions in the first half of May were less severe due to Western disturbances that affected parts of northwest India. As the next western disturbance is approaching northwest India, for the next 7 days, we are not expecting heatwave conditions there. But the temperature will be higher, up to 40°C,” Kuldeep Srivastava, IMD, Delhi said.
The IMD forecast also suggests light to moderate widespread rainfall activity over northeast India during the next five days.
“Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh on 16th, 19th & 20th; over Assam & Meghalaya and Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 16th to 20th May,” it said.
(With ANI inputs)
