New Delhi: US President Joe Biden’s decision to seek re-election in 2024 could set up a rematch with former president Donald Trump, highlighting the deep divisions in American politics, though experts believe the outcome of such a contest is unlikely to impact the current course of India-US relations.
Biden unveiled his bid for a second term in a video posted online on Tuesday, asking voters to back him once again in the “battle for the soul of America”. He warned that “MAGA extremists” – a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan – were preparing to take on “bedrock freedoms” and make it difficult for people to vote.
The video lasting a little more than three minutes emphasised Biden’s domestic agenda, including the protection of the political and other freedoms of the American people, and made no reference whatsoever to the foreign policy priorities of the current US administration.
Though Biden’s personal relationship with India’s top leadership has seen none of the grand public gestures that characterised Trump’s stint in the White House, the overall bilateral relationship has gone from strength to strength, driven by burgeoning and closer ties in the sphere of defence and critical technologies, trade and investment, and shared concerns and challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, especially the belligerent actions of China.
“The old argument that India always benefited when the Republican Party is in power is moot. I would argue that our policy towards the US is pretty bipartisan,” said former ambassador Ajay Bisaria,” who served as envoy to Canada and Pakistan and closely tracks developments in North America.
“In India’s dealings with the US, the core interests now coincide, whether it is China or the Quad. Regardless of who is in the White House, India now has excellent relations across the American political and diplomatic establishment, be it the Pentagon or the state department. The incumbent in the White House is important but is only one of the factors,” Bisaria said.
Defence ties, both on the bilateral track and in collaboration with partners such as Australia and Japan, have witnessed exponential growth, and the militaries of India and the US now conduct a wide range of exercises that have enhanced inter-operability and the ability to respond to natural disasters and contingencies across the region.
The US fielded frontline combat aircraft such as the F-15 and B-1B strategic bomber for the Cope India-2023 air exercise that concluded this week. Australia has become a key part of the Malabar naval exercise conducted by India, Japan and the US, thus leading to enhanced maritime cooperation between members of the Quad. The Quad is also focusing on closer cooperation in strategic areas, such as setting standards for critical technologies.
There have also been regular exchanges between the leadership of India and the US, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Biden having interacted on multiple occasions, such as on the margins of the Quad Leaders’ Summit in Japan in May 2022, the G7 Summit in Germany in June 2022, and the G20 Summit in Indonesia last November. Modi is also expected to make a state visit to the US in June.
The launch of the India-US initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) in January reflects the growing partnership in this crucial sphere, with the two sides agreeing to develop a new defence industrial cooperation road map to for joint development and production of jet engines and munition-related technologies, and to build an innovation ecosystem by expanding collaboration on artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and advanced wireless.
According to figures from the US department of commerce, two-way trade in goods and services has risen from $146 billion in 2019 to $159 billion in 2021. On the diplomatic front too, experts believe convergences between the two sides far outweigh differences on issues such as India’s lack of public criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“There will be no dramatic change of direction [after the next US election]. The core relationship is set in a secular direction which is unchangeable, and one of the key factors is the geopolitical challenge of China,” said Bisaria.
However, another former ambassador, Vivek Katju cautioned that irrespective of the outcome of the next American presidential election, countries such as India may have to prepare for a diminished role for the US on the world stage. “There is comprehensive confusion in the US at a time when there is complete clarity in China under an absolute leader. This will impact world politics, since China is flexing its muscles like never before.”
