Mumbai: A Constitution bench ruling on Thursday that will have far-reaching implications for Maharashtra’s politics. The five-judge bench in the Supreme Court will deliver its judgment on a bunch of petitions pertaining to last year’s split in the Shiv Sena between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions, and the then-governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari’s decision to invite Shinde to form the government along with the Bharatiya Janata Party after Thackeray chose to resign.
Issues before the Supreme Court
Among a spate of issues, one of the key decisions that apex court is expected to make is on the validity of then Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari’s mandate to Thackeray for facing a floor-test. This sparked the political upheaval in the state with Thackeray resigning and Shinde taking over as CM on the very next day. Connected to this crucial issue will be Koshyari’s invitation to Shinde to form the government even as disqualification proceedings against him and the MLAs of his faction under the anti-defection law were pending before the then deputy speaker.
In case the five-judge bench rules that Koshyari’s decisions were unconstitutional, it will then also have to give its ruling on the validity of the Shinde-Fadnavis government, besides answering what it called, during one of the hearings, a “legal conundrum” surrounding the political fate of Thackeray who chose to resign instead of facing the floor test.
The top court will answer to Thackeray’s vehement plea that all the disqualification petitions – ones pending against the Shinde camp as well as those pending against the Thackeray faction – should be adjudicated directly by the Supreme Court to ward off political considerations and prejudices.
Another crucial issue will be whether Maharashtra assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar’s decision to recognise the Shinde-led faction as the real Shiv Sena was legally right. If, on the other hand, the court acknowledges last June’s events as a split in the Shiv Sena, it may also opine on whether the Shinde faction violated provisions of the anti-defection law by not merging with any other party on the floor of the assembly. The apex court will then also have to decide on the disqualification proceedings initiated by the-then deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal against 16 Shinde faction MLAs.
It may be recalled that in June of 2022, when Shinde and his men rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray leading to the fall of the MVA government, Zirwal, a leader from the National Congress Party, was the deputy speaker and in charge of the proceedings as the post of the speaker had fallen vacant after Congress’s Nana Patole stepped down. However, after Uddhav Thackeray’s resignation as CM in June 2022, the BJP-Shinde combine chose BJP leader Rahul Narwekar as the Speaker.
We look at the three scenarios that are possible, and what their implications might be:
If the judgment goes in Shinde’s favour
This would signal a major political victory for the chief minister, making him a serious and long-term player in national politics, and of course for the BJP which backed the split in the Shiv Sena. The apex court’s stamp of approval would also help the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance counter Shiv Sena (UBT)’s attempts to elicit sympathy from the traditional Shiv Sena voter, and boost their chances in the Mumbai municipal polls. A pro-Shinde verdict may also lead to another round of defections from the Thackeray faction. Shinde can also continue as chief minister and might even become the face of the ruling alliance in the 2024 elections. Such a verdict would signal a major setback for Uddhav Thackeray. With his petition challenging the Election Commission’s decision to hand over the party name and symbol to Shinde still pending, an adverse SC judgment will make things close to impossible for him.
If the judgment goes against Shinde
The constitution bench verdict against Shinde would necessarily entail an adverse view against the Governor’s decisions to ask Thackeray to prove majority of the floor of the House without their ostensible constitutional grounds to do so. In turn, it may also vitiate Koshyari’s invitation to Shinde to form the government in the state with support of BJP. If the court finds constitutional infirmities in the Governor’s decision, it may result in the fall of the incumbent state government.
But a more complex question would arise with this course of action as Thackeray resigned without facing the floor test and therefore, declaring Koshyari’s decision bad in law cannot automatically reinstate him as CM. In such a scenario, the constitution bench may have to chart a constitutionally and legally permissible path where both Shinde and Thackeray could be put on a level playing field to face the disqualification proceedings as well as prove their strength in the assembly following a procedure laid down by the court.
Such a judgment would deal a severe blow to Shinde, for this would mark not just loss of political capital but also weaken him in the battle for the heart and soul of the Shiv Sena.
Conversely, a verdict against Shinde will mark a big victory for Thackeray and he could effect a counter split in the Shinde faction. He may then also cite the verdict in the Supreme Court to get back his party name and symbol from Shinde. For Fadnavis, on the one hand, such a verdict could lead to fall of the government but then again, it could pave the way for his return as chief minister.
If SC leaves the disqualification decision to the Speaker
One of the core issues in the Sena Vs Sena battle is whether the rebel MLAs led by Shinde incurred disqualification after they split, making them electorally incapable of holding their positions. Even if the court leaves that call to the speaker, it will be seen as a victory for the Shinde-led government, at least in terms of perception. It will help the state government survive until the end of its tenure next year. Though the Constitution bench is expected to speak on the role of the former Maharashtra governor BS Koshyari in dislodging the Thackeray government, it would not directly affect the fate of the government. “It is the prerogative of the speaker to decide on disqualification of members, and the SC is expected to leave the decision to the speaker,” said Anant Kalse, former principal secretary of the state legislature. Effectively, what it would mean is that Eknath Shinde can continue as Maharashtra CM.
At the same time, there may be a twist in the tale and the Constitution Bench may lay down a set of new norms to guide the assembly Speakers with a timeline to decide disqualification petitions, paving the way for more political churnings in Maharashtra.