Amid heated political discussions over multiple cups of tea in the small village of Athahalli in Mandya, a diverse range of voices reflected the political divide in the region.
While Congress supporters questioned the Janata Dal (Secular) party’s attitude towards the villages after HD Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil lost the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, JD(S) loyalists argued that supporting their party was the only way to ensure a Vokkaliga chief minister.
“Didn’t he (Kumaraswamy) take away projects he announced just to get back at us,” argued Umesh Gowda, a driver.
53-year-old Ramesh NK, a LIC agent, gets up from the rock he was sitting on. Opposing his friend’s arguments with the animated hand gestures, he says that once ‘Dodda Gowda’ (HD Deve Gowda) comes to the village, all the differences will be forgotten.
“If you want the chief minister to be to Vokkaliga, voting for the JD(S) is the only option,” he said, looking at the others for support.
But the response from his fellow tea lovers remained muted.
Athahalli comes under the Nagamangala constituency, one of the seven seats in the Mandya district swept by the JD(S) in the 2018 elections. The party won the seat with a margin of over 47,000 votes and around 61% vote share. In this election, however, the mood in the villages isn’t as undivided.
In Bindiganavile village, the headquarters of Nagamangala taluk, Guru Prakash, one of the JD(S) workers who shifted to the Congress, pointed at the lake near the main road. “There was some rain, so we got enough water, but the project, which was to irrigate the area, has not taken off. We were staunch JD(S) supporters, but we want someone who takes care of the work,” said Prakash.
Voices of the voters like Prakash and Gowda resonated across the constituency, but there were enough voices countering them. However, such a shift in support, especially in the strongholds of the JD(S), is concerning for the party known to be the kingmakers of the state.
The fate of the JD(S) is crucial in Karnataka’s political landscape. If the regional party gets more than 35 seats, the chances of Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forming a government on their own reduces significantly. In the 2018 election, the JD(S) won 37 seats, and the community accounts for 11-14% of the state’s population. Six chief ministers of the state have hailed from the community, and 42 Vokkaliga MLAs were elected in the 2018 assembly elections, 23 from JD(S), 11 from Congress and eight from BJP.
The BJP angle
“Bidappa,” (just leave that) said Nyame Gowda of Srirangapatna when asked about the BJP narrative about Uri and Nanje Gowda killing Tipu Sultan.
“The entire story was cooked up, and they have also realised it. You should not waste time on it. The real issue is that the BJP will gain in votes,” said the former government servant.
Over the past year, the BJP, a dominant force in northern Karnataka, has raked up Hindutva issues in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited the region multiple times, announced development projects and constantly invoked the valour of the 16th-century Vokkaliga chieftain Kempegowda. He even installed a giant statue of him outside the Bengaluru airport. BJP leaders attempted to give a communal colour to many issues, including that of Tipu Sultan.
According to Nyame Gowda, it is not what the BJP has done but what JD(S) hasn’t done that will help the saffron party.
He said that JD(S) MLAs are facing anti-incumbency in the region, but it may not be enough to change the fate of many seats. “The rivalry between Congress and JD(S) is old here. So, anyone leaving the JD(S) will not vote for the Congress but BJP. The BJP may not win many seats here, but they will get enough votes to make their presence felt,” he added.
In the 2019 byelection, in two constituencies in the Old Mysore region, Chikkaballapura and KR Pete, the BJP had registered a surge in its vote share. In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP’s vote share in Chikkaballapura was as low as 3.21% whereas, in the recent by-polls, the party won with 48.53% of votes polled.
In KR Pete in Mandya district, which has traditionally been the forte of the JD(S), the BJP’s vote share in the 2018 election was as low as 5.64%. In the by-polls, the party candidate Narayan Gowda who switched his allegiance from the JD(S) to the BJP, won the election garnering a 39.41% vote share which is the first for the BJP in this constituency.
DK Shivakumar factor
In July last year, by making his chief ministerial ambition clear, Karnataka Congress president D K Shivakumar gave a clarion call to the Vokkaliga community to support his chief ministerial bid. Shivakumar conveyed his CM ambition to the Vokkaligas gathering, saying, “I’ve reached this stage. For me to become the CM, the Congress should come to power. For that, I’ve asked people to rally behind me.”
The base vote of the Congress party is around 34%. Only once did the party’s vote share go below this mark — in 1994, it was 26%. Even though the BJP’s base vote is around 34%, as the vote banks are concentrated, it could win them up to 100 seats. For Congress to get over 40% vote share, they will have to get votes from the Vokkaliga community, and the party was counting on DK Shivakumar to aid this shift of votes.
But in the villages of Mandya, Ramanagaram and Bengaluru rural, dominated by the Vokkaliga community, Shivakumar is not considered a mass leader of the community.
Puttanna Gowda of Channamanahalli village said that if the Vokkaligas want a chief minister from their community, it can only be HD Kumaraswamy. “Shivakumar is a city man. What will he understand about the needs of the villages?” he said.
When asked about his influence over the Vokkaliga voter banks, Shivakumar said he was a pan-state leader and not limited to a party. “I am not just a Vokkaliga leader. I stand for all sections of the society. May it be Lingayats, Vokkaligas or the backward classes, I have support from all of them. Like the Congress party, even I am for everyone. I want to be a representative of all sections of the society,” he said.
The dip in the chart
A JD(S) leader in Mandya said that the party had requested former prime minister and senior party leader Deve Gowda to campaign in the district extensively towards the end of the campaign.
“We are at a position where we can lose seats. We are at the top. In some seats, we have tough fights. So, if anything can work in our favour, it will be the presence of the senior Gowda,” he said.
However, the numbers don’t look good for the JD(S). As per a survey by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), 2,143 randomly selected voters from across 21 randomly selected assembly constituencies found that Vokkaligas appear to be divided mainly between the Congress and JD(S).
Among them, 34% supported the Congress, and 36% favoured the JD(S). The consolidation of Vokkaliaga votes led to a Congress seat tally coming below 20 and JD(S) going beyond 30 seats in the region in 2018. The trend is likely to see a shift if the sentiments on the ground are to be believed.
But former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy remains confident. According to him, the party will cross the 40 seats mark in the upcoming election. “We gained traction as we focused on groundwork well before the state switched into poll mode. Those who said JD(S) would not win more than 15 seats are now saying that the party can win around 40 seats. We will win more than that this year,” he said.
